What difference the Iran deal?

The first thing that strikes me about the deal the Obama Administration negotiated with Iran is its irrelevance.

Let me explain

In the teeth of sanctions the Iranians developed the capability to enrich uranium, build nuclear devices and build the rockets and cruise missiles that could deliver them. They are 90% or more of the way to becoming a fully-fledged nuclear armed state. Sanctions could not stop them completing the task.

In what follows it is important to bear this in mind. Sanctions or no sanctions, deal or no deal, Iran is on the threshold of becoming a nuclear state. The capabilities exist. It is in that sense that the deal negotiated in Vienna is irrelevant.

Will Iran choose to cross the threshold?

Well, that's another matter. I expect Iran to continue its development of delivery systems such as ballistic and cruise missiles. My guess is it will delay assembling an actual nuclear device until it has a fleet of reliable delivery vehicles. There's no point having nukes with no way to deliver them.

How long will it take? I have no way of telling but given the progress they have already made, with a little help from North Korea, I would say five years at the outside; but probably less. Remember they've been developing their missile capabilities despite sanctions. There's no reason to believe keeping sanctions in place would stop them.

So within a few years – five at the outside but probably less – Iran will have the capability of becoming an overnight nuclear armed state, delivery systems and all, with or without sanctions, deal or no deal.

Will they take the final step? Will they turn capability into actuality?

There's no way of being sure. However I can't imagine a nation devoting so much effort to becoming a nuclear power without taking the final step. So my forecast is that by 2020 at the latest Iran will be a fully equipped nuclear power.

What could stop them?

The short answer is nothing less than the physical destruction of their facilities. The US has that capability but Obama will not use it. I doubt that any future president will either. Clinton, Bush and Obama all refrained from bombing North Korea's nuclear facilities. The Bush Administration, not exactly what I would call a peaceful group, did not bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. Why should a future president act any differently?

Some Israelis have expressed the hope a post-Obama president will bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. To me it seems a forlorn hope.

Could Israel destroy Iran's nuclear facilities on its own?

The main reason I have for doubting Israel's capabilities is that they haven't already done so. I mean it's a no-brainer. If you can stop a bunch of "Mad Mullahs" getting nukes why wouldn't you?

And here we have a quandary. From the Israeli perspective what's worse than a nuclear armed Iran? The answer is easy to see. It's an Iran that acquires a nuclear capability after a failed Israeli attempt to stop it. The risks of an Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities are great and the cost of failure high.

There is a sober lesson from the past. In 1981 the Israelis bombed Iraq's Osirak reactor. They thought that had put paid to Saddam Hussein's nuclear ambitions.

As the world learned in the aftermath of the first Gulf War in 1990 that was not the case. Iraq's nuclear program had moved underground but continued.

My own feeling is that unless Israel has some secret capabilities that enable it to deliver a knock-out blow against Iran's nuclear facilities it is going to have to learn to live with a nuclear armed Iran.

Realistically, what can Israel do to stop it?

But that's not the end of the story. Military planners in the Gulf States, including Saudi Arabia, can do these calculations too. In fact they will have better information than me. They've all been arming themselves to the teeth. The Gulf States militaries are currently outspending the Iranians by a margin of at least three to one.

Does anyone believe that Saudi Arabia will let Iran become the military hegemon of the Middle-East?

Can anyone doubt the Saudis will arm themselves with delivery systems and nukes to match Iran?

We are going to see a nuclear arms race in the Middle-East.

Now there's a really scary thought. The Iranian Mad Mullahs versus the Saudi Mad Imams.