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The bear, not the elephant, in the living room

By Jonathan J. Ariel - posted Monday, 13 July 2015


Even as Russia's economy suffers from spiralling commodity prices, so long as Putin can project Russian pride abroad by standing up for the Motherland's values in her sphere of influence, with little in the way of Western consequences, the people will stand by their man.

In this context, trying to anticipate Putin's next move is no easy feat, but we can do worse than consider one of his heroes, Vladimir Solovyov.

Soon after the 1877 declaration of war by Russia on the Ottoman Empire, the young philosopher, Solovyov, addressed a crowd in St Petersburg, Putin's hometown. According to his biographer, Judith Deutsch Kornblatt, he celebrated the Slavic conviction in Russia's "divinely inspired historical mission". He assiduously argued that hope for the future lay neither with the fragmented West nor the monolithic East, but with a third people, the Slavs. It is the Slavic character that best integrates the other two he maintained.

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From the Troika's standpoint, Greece is indeed painted into a corner.

Whether it remains within or flees from the Eurozone, it owes hundreds of billions of euros with no hope of persuading even a first year accounting student that the country has realistic prospects of repaying its loans.

Nobody in Bruxelles, Berlin or Paris should worry about Tsipras at the eleventh hour pulling a rabbit out of his hat.

Instead Frau Merkel and Monsieur Hollande should worry about him pulling out the Russian Bear.

Soon we shall all see if Vladimir Ilyich Putin's undiluted faith in the historical mission of the Slavic people coupled with a budding partnership with Alexis Tsipras will catch Western Europe and the Obama administration napping.

If so, then his efforts to return Russia to her rightful place amongst the nations would have moved closer to being realised.

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About the Author

Jonathan J. Ariel is an economist and financial analyst. He holds a MBA from the Australian Graduate School of Management. He can be contacted at jonathan@chinamail.com.

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