Blundering through

There is less bipartisanism today than there was in the past, government has less ability to manipulate the economy than ever before, and who wins government will most probably be decided more on personalities than any major policy choices.

So from this point of view the 2013 Federal election should be one of the watershed elections to decide Australia's long term direction, but the opportunity is being wasted to the point where this election is not really very important at all.

Both leaders will tell the Australian people how well they can manage the economy within the paradigm currently acceptable to the national narrative of responsible fiscal and debt management. Both leaders will tell the Australian people that they can best secure Australia's borders. Both leaders will tell the Australian people they can best manage aged care, education, and health. The narrative and catch phrases may be different but the semantics are just the same. And this may be why the parliament after the 2010 election was hung, and this time around in 2013, the result may also be very close.

It looks like the decision of who will govern Australia after this election will come down to some 20 seats. This further reduces the 2013 election to a tactical one, rather than one where new major visions are expounded and leaders try and capture the imagination of the people. Rudd's move to place popular ex-Queensland premier Peter Beattie as the candidate for the marginal coalition seat of Forde shows that this is a tactical election.

Watch the tally on election night in states like Victoria and the results may be confused with uneven swings where seats cross over to both parties, making any early result difficult to predict. Some states are showing swings to the coalition like Victoria, while Queensland and Western Australia are showing swings back to the Government. Both leaders are playing for the same space and run the awful risk of appearing too similar. This is where the preferences of the Greens may actually determine the outcome of the election, although its most likely that the coalition may just get in. It will really depend upon which leader looks the most credible, so Rudd cannot not be written off by any means.

Perhaps the fact that major oil fields have been found in Australia will allow the 'lucky country' to continue to stumble along without the need to tackle any structural issues. Australia had the gold rushes, the wool boom, the minerals boom, and may be the next boom will be an oil boom, so there is no need of any vision.