Rudd (not Labor) can win

What are the issues driving the result

 Our polling is primarily qualitative, adding the “why” to the “what”. This is a better measure of what is happening than straight quantitative polling. We have analysed our responses using Leximancer, which is semantic software measuring the relationships between words and the probabilities of them being related.

When asked about why they are voting as they are respondents tend to mention “policies” first and “party” second. (See table at end) “Policies” is a word that favours Labor as many voters feel that they have policies, and they are unsure whether the Liberals do, particularly from the point of view of social policy. “Party” is a word that favours Liberal as most voters dislike the Labor Party. “Government” and “country” are words that also favour the Liberals as there is a sense that the country deserves better and an acknowledgement that this has been a bad government. It is also a view that the government is consumed with itself rather than electors.

It seems therefore that the resurgence of Labor under Rudd is a statement of faith in him despite a lack of faith in Labor. As a result the debate seems a little abstract. “Economy”, which was a dominant issue some months ago, has almost disappeared as a major driver. “Change”, in the sense of “time for a change” is much more prominent, although it also refers to “climate change” which is still an issue for Greens voters.

Policies and a record of incompetence against change and a record of competence

So the political decision that voters feel they have before them now is one where they can choose a government with policies that has not been competent, but which they hope will be more palatable and effective under Kevin Rudd, versus an opposition that has been effective in the past, but which is hazy on its plans for the future and may be harsh.

Labor voters

“…low inflation low interest rates low unemployment and low debt. They have the basics right plus they have better policies on education global warming and social justice”

“The idea of a Lib govt lead by Abbott would b a disaster for australia. He has no real empathy with the disadvantaged people in aus, no real social conscience and the Libs are abt.”

Coalition voters

“The Coalition are far better at managing the economy, securing our borders, handling education and health and delivering better IR policies than Labor regardles of who the Labor leader is.”

“They are the only party to lead this country out of the mess Labor has placed us in since Rudd's inception in 2007. We need a government that will protect this country by stopping the boats.”

“More experienced, better economic credentials, better than the union controlled ALP, but still needs to do much better. At least they are not stupid enough to tell transparent lies.”

Undecided voters

“The labor lot have made a major mess with everything they have touched and have inserted the Unions into places they should not be seen or heard.”