Rudd (not Labor) can win

The latest poll from our What the People Want panel shows that Labor could now be in a winning position by changing to Kevin Rudd.

Our panel consists of people who are more interested in current affairs than the average voter. The results therefore tend to predict what less interested voters will decide to do when they absorb and analyse more of the facts.

Labor can win

The polling shows the Liberals dropping 6 percentage points, Labor up 3 percentage points and the Greens up 4. This puts the parties in a similar position to October 2010. If an election had been held then either side might have won, or it could have been a hung parliament.

Analysis of a weighted sample shows some interesting results.

Kevin Rudd not the messiah

 While Rudd appears to be wildly popular in scenes from shopping malls and public places around the country, this is not reflected in his approval scores where a majority (52%) disapprove of him and only 34% approves.

This reflects a significant rump of unhappy Labor voters (15%), a plurality of Greens (42%) and the majority of Liberals (87%) who disapprove of him.[Note: in the original these figures were slightly wrong due to a transposition error, and have been corrected today (15/7/2013)].

Abbott’s approval relatively strong

Tony Abbott’s net approval rating is a little stronger. While his disapproval is similar to Rudd’s at 50% he has a higher approval rating of 43%.

This reflects much stronger support from his own supporters (only 3% of Liberal voters disapprove), and the still very high first preference vote for the Liberal Party. ALP and Greens are almost unanimous in their disapproval – pointing to a divided nation.

Preferred Prime Minister a dead heat

This makes the question of who is the preferred prime minister a dead heat.

What are the issues driving the result

 Our polling is primarily qualitative, adding the “why” to the “what”. This is a better measure of what is happening than straight quantitative polling. We have analysed our responses using Leximancer, which is semantic software measuring the relationships between words and the probabilities of them being related.

When asked about why they are voting as they are respondents tend to mention “policies” first and “party” second. (See table at end) “Policies” is a word that favours Labor as many voters feel that they have policies, and they are unsure whether the Liberals do, particularly from the point of view of social policy. “Party” is a word that favours Liberal as most voters dislike the Labor Party. “Government” and “country” are words that also favour the Liberals as there is a sense that the country deserves better and an acknowledgement that this has been a bad government. It is also a view that the government is consumed with itself rather than electors.

It seems therefore that the resurgence of Labor under Rudd is a statement of faith in him despite a lack of faith in Labor. As a result the debate seems a little abstract. “Economy”, which was a dominant issue some months ago, has almost disappeared as a major driver. “Change”, in the sense of “time for a change” is much more prominent, although it also refers to “climate change” which is still an issue for Greens voters.

Policies and a record of incompetence against change and a record of competence

So the political decision that voters feel they have before them now is one where they can choose a government with policies that has not been competent, but which they hope will be more palatable and effective under Kevin Rudd, versus an opposition that has been effective in the past, but which is hazy on its plans for the future and may be harsh.

Labor voters

“…low inflation low interest rates low unemployment and low debt. They have the basics right plus they have better policies on education global warming and social justice”

“The idea of a Lib govt lead by Abbott would b a disaster for australia. He has no real empathy with the disadvantaged people in aus, no real social conscience and the Libs are abt.”

Coalition voters

“The Coalition are far better at managing the economy, securing our borders, handling education and health and delivering better IR policies than Labor regardles of who the Labor leader is.”

“They are the only party to lead this country out of the mess Labor has placed us in since Rudd's inception in 2007. We need a government that will protect this country by stopping the boats.”

“More experienced, better economic credentials, better than the union controlled ALP, but still needs to do much better. At least they are not stupid enough to tell transparent lies.”

Undecided voters

“The labor lot have made a major mess with everything they have touched and have inserted the Unions into places they should not be seen or heard.”

 “Labor lost its way and we do not have time for them to find it again, despite the change in leadership”

“I will not vote for Labor after the Kevin Rudd leadership, this will be only the second time in 37 years”

Concepts by ranking

Concept Map