Syria in the fog of war

Hezbollah units are reportedly operating inside Syria in support of Assad and defending Alawite villages in areas near the Syria/Lebanon border.

Hezbollah and the Syrian rebel forces have accused each other of firing artillery over the border.

The rebel forces may be reluctant to follow through on their threats to attack Hezbollah positions inside Lebanon due to the significant military capabilities of the organisation.

Hezbollah is regarded as one of the most dangerous guerrilla organisations in the world with estimates that it can mobilise up to 65,000 troops and that it possesses a large stockpile of rockets and other weapons.

The organisation would retaliate against any push into Lebanon by the Syrian rebel forces as that would pose a threat to its authority in the country, particularly if Sunni and Salafist Lebananese challenged the Shiite Hezbollah that currently dominate the government.

A further development came this week when Syria's Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem said, for the first time, that the Assad regime was willing to open negotiations with rebel leaders to end the bloodshed.

The statement came during a visit to Russia, a key backer of the regime, and meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov who has consistently warned that the Syrian conflict has the potential to morph into a fully-fledged regional sectarian conflict between Sunni and Shiite.

The offer to negotiate comes after reports that regime forces have changed tactics and adopted largely defensive positions that will prove difficult to overcome.

While many pundits continue to predict the fall of the Assad regime there is a view that with the strong backing of Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, it has the military capacity to survive for two years or longer.

That would lead to enormous ongoing hardship and loss of life among the Syrian civilian population and the military forces.

One of the dangers is that if the Syrian regime is able to maintain a stalemate for any significant length of time, the rebel forces may turn their attention to Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan and/or Israel.

It is difficult to envisage a negotiated settlement that would satisfy the aspiration of Syria's Sunni majority and the various minorities including the Alawite community from which the regime arose.

Despite the enormous difficulties in achieving such a settlement, every effort must be made to bring peace to Syria before the war spreads beyond its borders, with devastating consequences.