Israel's Iron Dome: a global game changer?

In principle it is easy to shoot down an enemy ballistic missile like a Russian Grad or Iranian Fajr. First you need to know the location, in three dimensions, the speed, the bearing, also in three dimensions, and the shape of the incoming projectile. Modern radar can provide information about location, speed and bearing. It can also identify the type of projectile which gives information as to shape.

Then you need software that can calculate an interception course for an anti-missile. Add in some terminal guidance on your anti-missile for mid-course corrections and, bang, a hit is guaranteed.

Oh, and make the system smart enough that it ignores missile that are going to land in open areas where they won't do any damage. That way you don't go off wasting expensive ordinance.

Well that's the theory. Iron Dome is the first system to bring all these elements together in a cost-effective manner. The Israeli designed and built radar and battle management systems as well as the Israeli designed and built Tamir interceptor missiles all performed above expectation.

According to the Israeli Ministry of Defence, Iron Dome knocked down over 400 incoming rockets. Only 70 landed in urban areas implying a success rate of around 85%. Rockets that were headed for open country where they were unlikely to do much harm were ignored.

Even more amazing, only 500 Tamirs were launched meaning that almost every interceptor missile found its target.

The cost of a Tamir interceptor missile is around $50,000. However this is an estimate of full cost including an allowance for amortising R & D. With mass production the marginal cost of could probably be reduced to below $10,000. This means that the cost of shooting down a missile may be comparable to the cost of the incoming projectile – a cost effective defence in every sense of the word.

One of the keys to a successful missile defence system is ultra-fast computers. I doubt if even five years ago Iron Dome could have performed as it did. My guess is that the designers of the system counted on computing power catching up with their requirements.

Another requirement is versatile software. There are reports that software engineers were monitoring performance and updating the system with improvements even while the conflict was under way. This from Business Week:

Typical command-and-control software for military gear is highly customized and hard to modify. The key to [Iron Dome's success]…. is that the command-and-control software is simple and modular, so customers can quickly adapt it without reprogramming. The Israeli army was able to recalibrate Iron Dome batteries almost immediately, without a software rewrite, when Hamas fighters began to fire longer-range missiles.

(Behind the Iron Dome: How Israel Stops Missiles By Peter Coy on November 21, 2012)

Even better would be software that is able to learn from its mistakes and improve itself as some of the more advanced chess-playing and facial recognition software already does.

You can see a video of Iron Dome in action by clocking on this link.

But why is Iron Dome a global game changer?

Bear in mind that an essential component of Iron Dome is its ability to recognise when an incoming missile will do little or no damage. If your missile is headed for an open field Iron Dome will ignore it.

However a sprawling city like Tel Aviv presents a huge target. Even a missile with a primitive guidance system would find it difficult to miss a target that size. Each Iron Dome battery reportedly has to protect an area of 150 square kilometres

On the other hand a destroyer or aircraft carrier is a much smaller target. Further development of the kind of technology Iron Dome has proved feasible could be adapted to defend point targets.

The Chinese military have been counting on anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs) to counter US naval power. ASBMs are long range ballistic missiles with terminal guidance sufficiently accurate to hit a ship in motion. Compared to defending a city the size of Tel Aviv defending a point target such as a single ship should be relatively easier. Only missiles likely to land sufficiently close to cause damage need be targeted.

Chinese military planners, like military planners everywhere, are going to have to rethink their strategic doctrines like in the light of Iron Dome's success.

Not so much Iron Dome itself as the technology it has demonstrated is a global game changer. Think of Iron Dome as being a technology demonstrator as well as a rather successful first generation missile defence system.

The Indian military is wasting no time. This from the Times of India:

India eyes Israel's Iron Dome to counter Pak, puppets

NEW DELHI: As Fajr V rockets rained down on Israel from battleground Gaza for a week, many Indian defense planners were keeping a close watch on the performance of Israel's Iron Dome…

[…]

Several months ago, the military scientists in the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) had suggested that India look at a joint development programme with Israeli firms to develop an Indian version of Iron Dome, which is touted as the most effective system against short-range missiles such as Fajr V rockets. The Indian scientists believe Israel's plight has several parallels to its threat from Pakistan as well as the vulnerability of its cities from terrorists.

The Israelis are not standing still. Their next generation missile defence system, the "Stunner" is already undergoing testing in the Negev.

See:

Israel developing next-generation missile defense system with help from Raytheon

WASHINGTON - Israel's ability to shoot down hundreds of rockets fired by Hamas militants this past week has been hailed as a breakthrough in missile defense. But, military analysts warn, the real challenge is only beginning….

[…]

A critical test of the [new] system, called the Stunner, is set for Israel's Negev Desert in coming days.

Israelis are counting on the missile to become the centerpiece of their defense shield, known as David's Sling. US officials involved in the program and several independent specialists said the engineering challenge they face is aptly captured by the reference to the Old Testament mismatch between David and Goliath.