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The struggle for Afghanistan’s future.

By Julie Bishop - posted Thursday, 20 September 2012


During a visit to Afghanistan in 2009, I was told that a captured Taliban insurgent had pointed to the wristwatch of one of the soldiers and declared, “You have the watches but we have the time.”

With combat troops from the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) scheduled to be withdrawn from Afghanistan by the end of 2014, this anecdote reveals the urgency around strengthening the institutions of the government so that it can survive against extremists.

This looming deadline puts the conflict in Afghanistan at a critical juncture as the Taliban increases its attacks by ramping up its guerrilla warfare tactics.

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A tragic consequence has been the killing of international troops, including Australians, by Afghan soldiers and police undergoing training and with whom they are conducting joint operations.

This ruthless tactic has the obvious short-term goal of destroying the relationship between international forces and the Afghan army and police, thus reducing the effectiveness of the partnership aligned against the Taliban.

It is also aimed at reducing the effectiveness of training so that the Afghan military has less capacity than if full training and cooperation were maintained.

The longer-term goal of the extremists is to infiltrate the institutions of the Afghan government with a view to taking control after the withdrawal of international forces.

It is clear the Taliban believe this tactic can deliver a return to control of the nation, as the so-called "green on blue" attacks have increased rapidly over the past two years.

The Long War Journal estimates that these green on blue attacks have accounted for 15 per cent of all international casualties in Afghanistan this year, up from 2 per cent in 2010.

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There were six such attacks reported in 2010, with 15 in 2011 increasing to 59 to date in 2012.

NATO has reacted with a suspension on joint operations with Afghan military personnel until all troops have been vetted for links to the Taliban and other groups such as the Haqqani network.

While this appears to provide the Taliban with an advantage of sorts, it should prove short term as the vetting process eliminates or greatly reduces the incident rate.

NATO has reported that the vetting process is expected to take more than two months for the 27,000 Afghan troops serving under ISAF command, and that no training of new Afghan troops will take place during that time.

These attacks add another dimension of concern to the continuing debate about the presence of international forces in Afghanistan.

The Taliban has adopted many of the guerrilla warfare tactics that have been used by past insurgents facing a vastly superior military force.

These tactics are to destabilise the country through sabotage, hit and run ambushes, bombs and terrorising the local populace.

It is motivated by the principle that while an occupying force has to provide 100 per cent security for the local people to win their confidence, the guerrilla can undermine that confidence through targeted attacks against key people and institutions.

Insurgencies are difficult to defeat because they rarely engage in direct combat against conventional forces with superior weapons, and cannot be easily identified among the local population.

This has been the challenge for conventional military forces over hundreds of years.

That does not mean the resolve of the ISAF should wilt in the face of insurgent attacks.

It was always the case that after the Taliban was removed from power, the Afghan people would have to take ultimate responsibility for their own security, but that it could not be achieved overnight.

Thousands of soldiers, including Australians, have fought and many have given their lives in pursuit of that goal.

In my conversations with members of the Special Air Service Regiment, some of whom are based in my electorate in Perth, they report enormous gains in their efforts to stabilise Afghanistan.

They are committed to the task and understandably express frustration that the positives are rarely reported while the negatives are headline news.

If those who are putting their lives on the line to ensure Afghanistan has the best possible hope of not falling into the hands of extremists remain committed to that cause, it is vital they receive the unqualified support of every Australian while ever they remain in harm’s way.

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About the Author

Julie Bishop is the Federal Member for Curtin, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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