The dreadful dilemma over Iran

Israel detects more than a nuance in their respective positions which could be a highly relevant factor in their deliberations.

However, given the threat that a nuclear-armed Iran poses to Israel, it is more likely that the timing of any military strike will be driven by intelligence reports rather than the electoral timetable of its most important ally.

The likely fallout from an attack is considerable.

There would a major hit to the already fragile global economy that would be exponentially worse if Iran successfully mined the Strait of Hormuz and managed to damage Saudi oil export facilities.

Israel would face attack from Iran and from Hezbollah which is rumoured to have stockpiles of tens of thousands of shorter-range rockets.

It would face global condemnation and suffer economic hardship, least of all from the economic blow that it would inflict on Europe and the United States from skyrocketing prices for crude oil.

There is no doubt that Israeli leaders are aware of the risks.

They face a terrible dilemma of choosing what could be devastation in the wake of a strike or annihilation if Iran was to launch a nuclear attack.

All this could be avoided under the first scenario.