The great Muslim TFR mystery

But for now let's consider 2.1 a replacement level TFR.

Even with a TFR below 2.1 population could still go on growing for a while. This happens when, due to previous high birth rates, there is a large cohort of women of child-bearing age. We see this in China which has had a below replacement level TFR for many years but where the population is still growing slowly. It should stabilise in the next few years and then start declining because the present cohort of women is not replacing itself.

TFRs have been declining across the world for 50 years at a rate no one back in 1960 thought possible. Currently no European country has a TFR above replacement level. The closest seems to be France where TFR is boosted by a large population of immigrant origin from countries that traditionally have high TFRs.

However, here is the kicker. Which group of countries has seen the most spectacular fall in TFR?

It will come as no surprise to learn that the greatest falls in TFR have occurred in poor countries. These are the countries that had the highest TFRs to begin with.

However there are large regional variations.

Take a look at the table below. It shows TFRs in 1960 and 2011 for a selection of countries and regions. The first number shows TFR in 1960 taken from World Bank Development Indicators. The second number is TFR in 2011 from CIA World Factbook.

Bangladesh: 6.72 --> 2.55
Egypt: 6.60 --> 2.94
Indonesia: 5.67 --> 2.23
Iran: 6.94 --> 1.87
Iraq: 6.25 --> 3.58
Malaysia: 6.31 --> 2.64
Morocco: 7.17 --> 2.19
Pakistan: 6.65 --> 3.07
Saudi Arabia: 7.22 --> 2.26
Syria: 7.47 --> 2.85
Turkey: 6.12 --> 2.13
Yemen: 7.29 --> 4.45
World: 4.92 --> 2.47
Brazil: 6.21 --> 2.16
China: 5.67 --> 1.55
India: 5.87 --> 2.58
Sub Saharan Africa: 6.62 --> 4.90

You will notice that the first 12 countries in the table are all Muslim countries. It includes all the biggies.

So here is the great Muslim TFR mystery.

The theory is that traditional Muslim societies in which women are repressed should have persistently high birth rates. Yet when we look at the data it hasn't happened. Muslim societies have experienced precipitate declines in TFR. Even in outright theocracies like Iran and Saudi Arabia TFRs in 2011 were less than a third their level in 1960.

All the Muslim countries in the table had TFRs above the global average in 1960. By 2011 Indonesia, Iran, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Turkey were below the global average.