A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma

Legendary Prime Minister of Great Britain Winston Churchill said in 1939 that, "I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."

Churchill's famous observation perhaps explains the actions of Russia in recent times.

There has been considerable international criticism of Russia over its decision to veto, along with China, motions in the United Nations Security Council that could pave the way for military intervention to break the cycle of violence in Syria.

Reports of massacres of unarmed civilians amid a brutal crackdown had led to calls for external intervention.

Russia and China have both rejected such action and argued that some nations had exceeded the United Nations mandate when the no-fly zone over Libya led to a bombing campaign against Gaddafi's ground forces.

To follow Churchill's logic, the key may well be several threads of self-interest that Russia is pursuing.

Russia has a naval base located at the Syrian port of Tartus and it is an important part of the supply chain for Russian ships operating in an arc from the Mediterranean Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean.

Instability within Syria naturally makes Russia nervous as they cannot predict whether regime change would bring an administration to Syria that continues to be supportive of the Russian presence.

Secondly, the current Syrian regime has bought billions of dollars worth of military hardware from Russia.

This has ranged from fighter jets to tanks, artillery and small arms.

Given that the Assad regime has been using Russian armaments in the crackdown against thousands of people in Syria, it would be understandable for those opposed to the regime to be deeply cynical about Russia's actions.

Of even greater concern about Russia's behaviour is that it may be using the Syrian violence to advance its influence and strategic reach in the Middle East.

It would send a powerful message to the nations of that region that Russia can be counted upon to stand by its friends through hard times.

This is intended to draw a not so subtle contrast with the United States, which some have accused of being too quick to abandon Egyptian leader Hosni Mubarak.

Mubarak had been relatively close to the United States and his regime was a beneficiary of significant US support, financially and militarily.

It may have come as a shock not only to Mubarak that the US effectively withdrew its support after only a couple of weeks of protests within Egypt against his regime.

This was in spite of warnings from analysts of the potential for the Muslim Brotherhood to increase its influence within the nation, should then President Mubarak be removed from power.

Russia's staunch support for Syrian President Assad, in the face of international condemnation, is seen as a stark contrast.

The message Russia is seeking to send to other nations is that it is a more dependable friend than the United States.

There have also been concerns about the role that Russia has played in the Iranian nuclear program.

Russia constructed the Bushehr nuclear power station, despite international concerns about Iran's enrichment program, that the country claimed was for nuclear fuel, but which could lead to nuclear weapons development.

While Russia opposes military strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities, it cancelled the sale of advanced S-300 anti-aircraft missile batteries to the Iranian government in late 2010.

Iran was infuriated by the decision to cancel delivery of the batteries and commenced proceedings in the International Court of Arbitration.

Russia pointed to the United Nations Security Council sanctions as preventing the sale from going ahead, but this was strongly disputed by the Iranian regime.

Self interest is again in play by ensuring that Iran remains reliant on Russian influence regarding a more secure defence against the potential of air strikes from Israel and/or the United States.

The European financial crisis has provided Russia with an opportunity to expand its influence in the Mediterranean, which may also offer a potential alternative location for its military base should the Syrian location become untenable.

The Cyprus banking sector is struggling due to exposure to Greek debt and the Central Bank of Russia is reported to be considering a loan worth several billion dollars.

Cyprus has been an EU member nation since 2004 and Russia clearly sees a strategic opportunity for expanding its sphere of influence.

There has been a great deal written about the rise of China and the challenge it poses to the international order, but there has been less focus on the impact of a resurgent Russia which could, over time, be more critical to global peace and stability than the impact of a powerful China.

Russia has long played a key role in global affairs and there is every indication that it is once again poised to flex its diplomatic, economic and military muscle.