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Get our own house in order

By Julie Bishop - posted Thursday, 24 May 2012


This could indicate a slowing in activity within the building and construction sectors or that there is a slowing of infrastructure development within China, or both.

There is clear pressure on prices, with some Chinese buyers reportedly attempting to avoid contractual obligations and buying iron ore for example from the spot market.

These developments are presumably what inspired BHP chairman Jac Nasser to warn recently that the halcyon days of high iron prices driven by China’s seemingly insatiable demand are coming to an end.

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Meanwhile reports from the United States raise concerns about a recession emanating from a number of fiscal crunches in the final quarter of 2012.

Some analysts believe that the US is approaching a "fiscal cliff" due to tax increases and spending cuts that will kick in automatically unless Congress and the President reach agreement.

A Republican-dominated Congress could well refuse an agreement with Democrat President Obama in a Presidential election year.

This means the measures that are predicted to trigger a recession could occur in the midst of institutional gridlock and acrimony about spending cuts and government debt.

According to the influential Congressional Budget Office, the US economy would fall into immediate recession in the first half of 2013 if no action is agreed by the government.

The United States is the second key market for China’s exports and a US recession could be a double whammy for China’s economy, which is already showing signs of weakness.

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This would naturally flow to demand for Australia’s resources and impact on employment and further development in this country.

Meanwhile, political developments in Europe are doing little to calm nervous markets around the world.

The elections in Greece produced a result where no government can be formed and Greece is heading back to the polls in weeks to see if a definitive result can be achieved.

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About the Author

Julie Bishop is the Federal Member for Curtin, Deputy Leader of the Opposition and Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs.

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