An Egyptian winter

More than a year has passed since the tumultuous events involving the popular uprising and protests that removed from power long-time Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.

Apart from occasional eruptions of violence and sectarian clashes, Egypt has largely fallen off the radar for many western news organisations.

A much greater focus is now on Syria and the tragic events under way in that country.

Recent events in Egypt remain hugely important for the region and for the world.

After Mubarak's removal from power, an interim government was established under the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF).

The intervention of the armed forces was initially welcomed as a means of bringing greater stability to the country and to replace the civilian police, many of whom had fled their posts and were unable to restore authority over parts of the population.

The SCAF announced a timetable for elections and a transition to democratic rule, including some key elements of a redrafted constitution.

An attempt to delay elections until 2013 triggered a return to the streets by protestors forcing the SCAF to retreat and agree to hold presidential elections by June this year.

The call for nominations attracted 23 candidates, each with the requirement to support their application with 30,000 signatures from across Egypt.

With only weeks before the election process was to get under way, a five-member panel of judges serving as an election commission announced that it was disqualifying ten candidates, including three of the leading candidates.

This included a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood Khairat al-Shater, a conservative Islamist Hazem Salah Abu Ismail and Mubarak's former intelligence Minister Omar Suleiman.

This decision was appealed by the three candidates, with the panel rejecting that appeal.

The grounds for the rejection are procedural, including that Mr Abu Ismail failed to meet citizenship requirements as his mother was once an American citizen.

Mr Suleiman was disqualified reportedly for failing to meet the requirement of more than 30,000 verifiable signatures from across various regions of Egypt.

Most controversially, the Muslim Brotherhood candidate al-Shater was disqualified due to a past conviction for criminal offences, although many people regarded the charges as politically motivated and fabricated by the Mubarak regime.

The decision to ban al-Shater seems certain to inflame public opinion if the voting in parliamentary elections held late last year is any guide.

In those elections, the Freedom and Justice Party (Muslim Brotherhood) attracted just less than 37% of the vote while the Nour Party that represents more hardline Islamists received almost 25% of the vote.

If these parties were to form a coalition, it would give the Islamist parties a clear majority in the new Egyptian parliament.

The Muslim Brotherhood has been described as an enormously patient organisation.

It is reportedly proposing that Mr Mohammed Morsi be an alternative candidate who is eligible to run.

The decision to disqualify the leading candidates has created a significant degree of uncertainty, setting the scene for a volatile election campaign and vote.

Also adding to tensions within the country is the trial of those accused of involvement in a Port Said soccer match riot in February that resulted in the deaths of 75 people.

There are nine senior police office among the 73 people charged in relation to the deaths.

The trial has been suspended until early May and a verdict is expected as early as June.

There are fears it could be a flashpoint for further violence.

Egypt has the largest population of any country in the Middle East and North Africa with 80 million people.

It is a nation of great strategic importance due in part to its geographic location.

Egypt was involved in series of wars with Israel between 1948 and 1973, but became the first country in the region to formally recognise Israel when it signed a peace treaty in 1979.

This treaty and the actions of the Egyptian government since that time have made Egypt a force for stability in the region.

If the Muslim Brotherhood is successful in dominating the body politic in Egypt it could lead to even greater instability across the region than is already being experienced.

Governments in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have all expressed concerns at the activities of the Brotherhood within their borders.

Political victory in Egypt would only serve to embolden the Brotherhood to seek the overthrow of monarchies in those countries as a means of extending influence and power.

Events from the so-called Arab Spring continue to drive change throughout the Middle East and North Africa, with unpredictable consequences.

There could be a long Egyptian Winter ahead.