The China challenge: a strategic vision for US-India relations

Trade Could Mitigate Other Competitive Interests

Trade and business ties between China and India have increased dramatically in the past decade. Bilateral trade has increased from around $5 billion in 2002 to more than $60 billion in 2010. During Premier Wen Jiabao's visit to India last December, the two sides highlighted their growing economic relationship by pledging to boost trade over the next five years to $100 billion annually.

The rapidly expanding trade relationship between the two countries could help encourage a mutual interest in regional stability. While Beijing will almost certainly maintain close strategic ties to Pakistan, its growing economic stakes in India could motivate China to pay more attention to balancing its ties between India and Pakistan. On the other hand, some Indian analysts believe that China is pursuing a two-pronged strategy of lulling India into complacency with greater economic interaction while taking steps to encircle India and undermine its security.

What the U.S. Should Do

Indiamust include the potential threat of conflict erupting over its disputed borders with China in its security planning and projections. While Pakistan presents the most immediate threat to India, Indian strategists increasingly view China as the most important long-term security challenge. Long-standing China–Pakistan security ties are a continuing source of angst in New Delhi and reminder of a potential two-front war. While India seeks to avoid conflict with China, Indian military planners also assess that they need to develop sufficient capabilities to deter an increasingly powerful and assertive China.

The U.S. should pursue robust strategic and military engagement with India in order to encourage a stable balance of power in Asia that prevents China from dominating the region and surrounding seas. New Delhi-not unlike many other capitals in Asia-balks at the idea of being part of an American-led China "containment" strategy. Some Indian strategists even favor a go-slow approach to the U.S.–Indian partnership in order to avoid raising Chinese ire. But China's recent posturing on its border disputes with India leaves New Delhi few options other than to play all the strategic cards at its disposal, including deepening and expanding ties with the U.S. One must also calculate that Chinese alarms over "containment" may in part be a tactic to prevent closer Indian cooperation with nations in the Pacific, including the U.S.

The partnership between the U.S. and India will almost certainly never develop into an "alliance," given India's core foreign policy goal of maintaining its "strategic autonomy." But an elevated partnership that gives a nod to India's growing political, economic, and military strength would signal a solidarity that could help deter Chinese military aggression and temper China's ambitions to revise borders in its favor.

The U.S. and India share a broad strategic interest in setting limits on China's geopolitical horizons. They can work together to support mutually reinforcing goals without ever becoming "allies" in the traditional sense. To this end, the U.S. should:

• Support India's military modernization campaign, including its quest for increasingly sophisticated technologies related to its strategic weapons programs. The U.S. advanced this goal earlier this year when it removed export controls on several Indian space and defense-related organizations. In January, the U.S. removed several subsidiaries of India's Defense Research and Development Organization and the Indian Space Research Organization from the Department of Commerce's "Entities List," which bars the export of certain dual-use technologies.

During the 1990s, the U.S. had pressured India to modify its nuclear and missile posture and opposed the deployment of India's short-range Prithvi missile and the development of its medium-range Agni missile. The U.S. must recognize India's need to improve its strategic capabilities in order to address potential challenges from a rising China.

• Develop new initiatives for keeping the Indian Ocean safe and secure. India and the U.S. have participated together in informal low-level efforts to address piracy off the coast of Somalia and in the Gulf of Aden. However, India has not joined the U.S.-led Coalition Maritime Force with combined task force (CTF-151), which the U.S. established as a major multilateral counterpiracy effort. India has been more interested in coordinating with other countries on a bilateral basis to address piracy rather than joining multinational anti-piracy organizations. In 2008, India initiated the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium to discuss maritime security with the other littoral states but did not include the U.S. in the discussions.

The U.S. should continue to work with India on maritime security while also seeking to convince New Delhi of the merits of adding the U.S., the United Kingdom, and Australia to a forum like the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium. One of the main goals of the forum should be to agree to a code of conduct for naval vessels operating in the region and to develop an action plan for dealing with violations of the agreed code.