The China challenge: a strategic vision for US-India relations

The rivalry is also driven by the rapidly expanding resource requirements of each country, whose economies continue to grow steadily despite the global economic downturn. Competition over energy and water resources will increasingly shape the contours of their competition, as will each country's efforts to expand trade and economic relations with countries that are in the other's traditional sphere of influence.

Simmering Border Tensions

Long-standing border disputes between China and India continue to cause friction between the two countries despite ongoing border talks that started in the 1980s. India claims that China occupies more than 14,000 square miles of Indian territory in the Aksai Chin along its northern border in Kashmir (commonly referred to as the western sector), while China lays claim to more than 34,000 square miles of India's northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh (commonly referred to as the eastern sector). The two sides fought a brief border war in 1962 after China invaded the eastern and western sectors of their shared borders and ended up annexing the area of Aksai Chin, a barren plateau that had been part of the pre-partition princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. India also is a long-term host to the Dalai Lama and about 100,000 Tibetan refugees that fled after China annexed Tibet in 1950.

Meanwhile, according to Beijing, India is occupying territory unfairly claimed during the era of "unequal treaties." The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has never accepted the validity of the McMahon Line as the demarcation of the Sino–Indian border in Tibet, viewing it as forced upon weak imperial and republican governments by the British Raj.

In 2003, each side appointed "special representatives"-national security adviser for India and vice foreign minister for China-to upgrade and regularize their border discussions. Since then, the two sides have clarified the mapping of the middle sector of their disputed frontiers (the border that demarcates the Indian state of Sikkim). However, there has been no exchange of maps of the eastern and western sectors under dispute.

China's interest in consolidating its hold on Tibet and its perceptions of India's expanding global influence and closer ties to the U.S. have led Beijing to harden its position on its border disputes with New Delhi over the past five years. China has increasingly questioned Indian sovereignty over the states of Arunachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir and has stepped up probing operations along different parts of their shared frontier. The Chinese are also building up military infrastructure and expanding a network of road, rail, and air links in the border areas.

The hardening Chinese position can be traced back to comments made by the Chinese ambassador to India, referring to the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh as part of China, in the run-up to President Hu Jintao's November 2006 visit. Moreover, in recent years, Chinese commentators have begun to refer to Arunachal Pradesh commonly as "Southern Tibet." Prior to 2005, there were no Chinese references to "Southern Tibet" in China's official media. In 2009, China opposed an Asian Development Bank loan, part of which was earmarked for a watershed project in Arunachal Pradesh-another demonstration that China is questioning Indian sovereignty over the state more openly.

These moves have signaled to New Delhi that the Chinese may be backing away from a 2005 border agreement, referred to as the "Agreement on Political Parameters and Guiding Principles for Settlement of the Boundary Question." More specifically, since the 2005 accord stipulated that "settled populations will not be disturbed," India argues that China has violated the 2005 agreement by laying claim to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh. Chinese interlocutors claim Tawang is part of Tibet because one of the Dalai Lamas was born there. The Chinese have objected to recent visits to Tawang by the Indian Prime Minister and the Dalai Lama.

In addition to raising questions about the status of Arunachal Pradesh, China has called into question Indian sovereignty over the state of Jammu and Kashmir. In 2009, Beijing began stapling visas to Indian passport holders from Jammu and Kashmir. Furthermore, in July of last year, China denied a visa to Indian Lieutenant General B. S. Jaswal, chief of Northern Command, which includes parts of Kashmir. General Jaswal had intended to travel to Beijing to participate in a high-level China–India defense exchange. In response to China's refusal to grant General Jaswal a visa, India suspended further bilateral defense exchanges.

The visa issue appears to have been resolved, as India resumed defense contacts with China last month by sending an eight-member Indian military delegation to China. The visit followed media reports that China had begun issuing regular visas to Indian residents of Jammu and Kashmir.

Since the 1999 Kargil border conflict between India and Pakistan, Beijing's position on Kashmir seemed to be evolving toward a more neutral position. During that conflict, Beijing helped convince Pakistan to withdraw forces from the Indian side of the Line of Control following its incursion into the heights of Kargil in Kashmir. Beijing made clear its position that the two sides should resolve the Kashmir conflict through bilateral negotiations, not military force, but the stapled visas issue and Beijing's refusal to grant a visa to the Indian army official from Kashmir have raised concern in New Delhi that China is reverting to a policy of favoring Pakistan's position on Kashmir. Indian commentators have noted that China's backtracking from its neutral position on Kashmir would likely be met with subtle moves by India that increasingly question Chinese sovereignty over Tibet.

Increasing Military Activities