The China challenge: a strategic vision for US-India relations

Chinatransferred equipment and technology and provided scientific expertise to Pakistan's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs throughout the 1980s and 1990s, enhancing Pakistan's strength in the South Asian strategic balance. The most significant development in China–Pakistan military cooperation occurred in 1992, when China supplied Pakistan with 34 short-range ballistic M-11 missiles. Beijing also built a turnkey ballistic missile manufacturing facility near Rawalpindi and helped Pakistan develop the 750 km–range solid-fueled Shaheen-1 ballistic missile.

China helped Pakistan build two civilian nuclear reactors at the Chasma site in the Punjab Province under agreements made before it joined the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in 2004. More recently, China is moving forward with plans for two additional new nuclear reactors for Pakistan (Chasma III and Chasma IV), but the U.S. has indicated that Beijing must first seek an exemption from the NSG for any nuclear technology transfers. The NSG members discussed the proposed Chinese reactor sale to Pakistan at their plenary meeting in late June2011 in the Netherlands. China argued that the proposed sale should be viewed as part of the earlier agreement struck with Pakistan before Beijing joined the NSG.

An Obama Administration decision to allow the China–Pakistan nuclear deal to advance unhindered would contradict earlier statements by U.S. officials that the construction of the two new nuclear plants would be inconsistent with China's NSG commitments. It could also jeopardize nuclear safety and security on the subcontinent, given that Pakistan's increased access to civilian nuclear technology without sufficient legal context and safeguards poses a potential proliferation threat.

U.S. media reports claiming that 7,000 to10,000 PLA troops were deployed to Gilgit-Baltistan in Northern Pakistan last summer to help rebuild areas devastated by the massive Pakistani floods raised alarm in New Delhi. Indian analysts also noted the presence of PLA logistics and engineering corps in the region to provide flood relief and to build infrastructure projects such as roads, railways, and dams. The troops are most likely construction battalions helping to build transportation links between Pakistan and China, possibly from Gwadar Port. Nonetheless, New Delhi would view with consternation the possibility of Chinese troops stationed on both the eastern and northwestern borders of Indian Kashmir.

Chinaalso uses military and other assistance to court the smaller South Asian nations and to help them enhance their autonomy vis à visIndia. Beijing has sold modern missile boats to Bangladeshand provided extensive military aid to Sri Lanka to help it win the war against the Tamil Tigers in 2009.

China's main interest in Nepal stems from its concerns over the large Tibetan refugee population there. Close to 20,000 Tibetans reside in Nepal, making it home to the world's second-largest Tibetan refugee community. Beijing increased its involvement with Nepal after the March 2008 ethnic Tibetan uprising against Chinese rule on the eve of the 2008 summer Olympics in Beijing. Beijing has been pressing Nepal to tighten its borders with Tibet, which has led to a major decrease in the number of Tibetans able to flee to Nepal in recent years. China is also bolstering trade with Nepal and pursuing road-building and hydropower projects.

India"Glancing" East

For its part, India is slowly building political and economic ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the individual states of Southeast Asia, which generally welcome India's involvement as a balance to growing Chinese influence. India became a member of the East Asia Sum­mit in December 2005 and signed a free trade deal with the ASEAN countries in2009. India has also enhanced its naval profile in Southeast Asia, holding periodic joint exercises with Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

Also with an eye on China, India has prioritized strengthening relations with Japan through increasing military contacts, maritime cooperation, and trade and investment ties. Tokyo has pledged $4.5 billion in soft loans for the Delhi–Mumbai railway freight corridor, and the two sides inked a joint security declaration in 2008, calling their partnership "an essential pillar for the future architecture of the region." In 2007 and 2009, Japan participated in the Malabar naval exercises in the Indian Ocean. In a significant turnaround from its past tough stance toward India's nuclear program, Tokyo is currently negotiating a civil nuclear deal with New Delhi.

Contesting the Seas…Indo–Chinese strategic competition increasingly revolves around naval issues. India views with concern the Chinese military presence in and around the Indian Ocean and is carefully considering what it means for energy and sea-lane security. New Delhi is especially worried about Beijing's potential naval expansion, including the development of its first aircraft carrier.

Indiais steadily increasing its defense budgets and focusing particular attention on building up its naval capabilities. In February, New Delhi unveiled its 2011 budget with an 11 percent increase for defense. India's rising defense budgets and growing navy have begun to concern Beijing, as China's energy lifeline that passes through the Indian Ocean side of the Malacca Straits will increasingly be vulnerable to India's naval presence.

Indiahas the world's fifth-largest navy. It already has one aircraft carrier and is striving to put into place three carriers by 2020 as part of its naval expansion and desire to project power throughout the Indian Ocean. Difficulties in defense procurement and deficiencies in its own shipbuilding sector, however, could stall India's progress in developing its naval capabilities.