Some facts about the Middle-East

JORDAN

In 1973 Jordan produced 256,000 tons of wheat. In 2008 just 25,000 tons. Jordan will probably soon be 100% reliant on imported wheat.

For the moment Jordan is heavily reliant on foreign aid to finance its food imports. However King Abdullah does seem to be trying to attract foreign investment. Maybe factories will spring up in Jordan to supply the European market. Maybe Egypt will then follow in Jordan’s footsteps.

SYRIA AND IRAQ

Syria and Iraq are maintaining fairly high levels of wheat production. However, like Saudi Arabia, they are over-pumping their underground aquifers.

In addition both countries are downstream from Turkey. Turkey is building dams in Anatolia which are reducing the flows of rivers into these two countries. It is questionable how long Syria and Iraq are going to be able to maintain their wheat production. It could go the same way as Saudi Arabia albeit with a less dramatic decline.

However while wheat production is not declining for the moment neither is it increasing. Both countries have rapidly increasing populations though in Syria the population increase is mitigated by one of the world’s highest per capita rates of emigration.

WHAT IS THE BOTTOM LINE?

Here is the bottom line

The important issues in the Middle-East relate to water, food and population. Of course this is also true of much of the rest of the world but matters seem to be coming to a head most rapidly in the Middle-East.

Changes of president in Egypt or Syria or resolution of the Arab-Israeli conflict or an “Arab democratic spring” will not resolve these issues.