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Tiny [thought] bubbles

By Ross Elliott - posted Friday, 15 April 2011


But Dick, we aren't running out of land. This argument is preposterous, on any valid domestic or global comparison. The reason we are denying future generations a backyard in preference over high density dwelling is not a land shortage brought on by population growth, but a planning philosophy which dogmatically asserts that growth boundaries and high density are the preferred regulatory path for accommodating growth. Developers and land economists could explain this to Dick, if he were prepared to listen. Plenty of people, given the choice, would happily occupy suburban blocks far from CBDs because their work (which for 9 out of 10 Australians is not in the CBDs) and their lifestyle preferences (typically raising a family) are that way inclined. Those people though are not planners, and neither are they part of the current oligarchy which delivers decisions allegedly in their interests via the confines of inner city coffee shops.

Even in the United Kingdom (population 62 million, in an area slightly larger than Victoria) there are those proposing the establishment of new urban centres to provide housing choice and to accommodate growth. Ian Abley's Audacity.org has proposed a '250 New Towns' movement, which seeks to do precisely that.

If there are those prepared to venture such audacious ideas in a nation the size of the UK, one wonders why Australia has allowed itself to become preoccupied with the notion that we are somehow running out of land.

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Australia's growth rate is currently a dizzying 1.6% per annum. It's fallen from a high of 2%, as international migration was reduced. Neither rates of growth, on a global scale, are remarkable. By 2050, when global population growth is predicted to stop, our total population will reach an estimated 35 million people, of whom 23% - or nearly one in four - people, will be aged over 65.

It reads not like a recipe for over population, but one of under population. Perhaps it's time the tiny thought bubbles of Dick Smith and his cohorts in this discussion were well and truly pricked by the sharp end of reality.

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About the Author

Ross Elliott is an industry consultant and business advisor, currently working with property economists Macroplan and engineers Calibre, among others.

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