The legacy of Rudd Labor - and the challenge confronting Julia Gillard

Finally, referring to a reform which had received limited public attention, Rudd stated his pride in lifting organ donation rates with the consequence of many lives saved. This was of deep personal significance to the former Prime Minister as he himself has been a recipient of organ donation.

In the future, reflecting upon his time as Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd can at least take comfort that his was a genuine and in many ways positive legacy.

Considering the recent state of Rudd Labor, though, I feel that the former Prime Minister’s position was not beyond being salvaged. A strategic withdrawal to a better defensive position might have been made in establishing a mining tax regime for which there had already been an Australian precedent (i.e., petroleum and gas resource rent). Or perhaps other measures - but not so far as to cut the projected increase in revenue by more than half. This could have been of great benefit in allaying voters’ fears.

And Rudd Labor could have capitalised upon its achievements once a compromise had been consolidated on the mining super-profits tax, with the fear campaign no longer “saturating” the public sphere. As we have seen: there was indeed a significant array of genuine achievements.

But now the deed has been done. The power-brokers obviously believed that the haemorrhaging of Labor’s support base under Rudd was beyond remedy. Rudd was the “sacrificial lamb” for Labor’s apparent “fresh start”. And despite the outrage of many, it is an important landmark as Julia Gillard emerges as Australia’s first woman Prime Minister.

Although in the past having proclaimed herself a socialist, and having come from the Labor Party’s left-wing, Gillard has not refrained from confronting unions. This has occurred regularly in her past capacity as Minister for Industrial Relations and Education. There are many who question her “left credentials”: but there are some also for whom any such doubts would actually be “a plus”.

Importantly, an Age/Nielson poll showed a surge of support for Gillard. The Age has reported that:

The government's two-party vote has leapt 8 points in three weeks, taking it to a 55-45 per cent lead over the opposition … On these figures Labor would sweep to power with almost two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives.

Many are responding to Gillard’s message that while the government had “lost its way” she intends to get it “back on track”. Regardless of whether or not public disillusionment with Labor has been justified, Gillard is responding here to the sentiment in the electorate and her message is finding resonance with voters. But importantly, in order to consolidate those supporters “returning home” after defecting to the Greens, Gillard will need to construct robust policies on the environment.

While some focus on Gillard’s “shattering of the glass ceiling”, and her origins in the ALP Left, others will be wondering what the consequences of recent events will have for policy. It is the substance of policy implemented which, after all, matters most.

Public education and health seem to be passions for Gillard. But deep structural reform here would require tax reform in order to provide funding.

Would Gillard consider an increase in progressive taxation for her first term - of between 1 per cent and 1.5 per cent of GDP - focusing on the top 20 per cent income demographic? Would she actively promote that position at the next ALP National Conference, and foreshadow this in the run-up to the election to secure a mandate?