Wealthy Greens the new DLP

Sydney: Labor drops to 40 per cent, the Greens rise to nearly 30 per cent and the Liberals remain on about 26 per cent. With 80 per cent-plus of the Liberals' second preferences, the Greens end up on about 52 per cent.

Denison may be a problem if the swing to the Greens is more than 10 per cent and the Liberal vote drops slightly. Grayndler is still OK for ALP, as is Batman.

Labor could also lose three of its ultra-marginals, on 51 per cent or below.

For example, Macquarie is on 50.1 per cent. Suppose the Greens vote goes up 8 per cent at the direct expense of the ALP primary vote but Labor wins back only 6.4 per cent, at an 80 per cent preference drift. Labor suffers a net loss of 1.6 per cent of the preferred vote. So all three are lost, and Labor loses government.

If the drift drops back to 70 per cent because of the super tax, then the swing against Labor is 2.4 per cent and Labor loses the whole shooting match by a big margin.