Wealthy Greens the new DLP

In their dotage they move back to the outer suburbs, with worm farms and backyard chook pens, tending their raised vegetable beds according to the Peter Cundall weekly gardening guide.

In retirement, their income from superannuation is second only to that of the average Liberal. They're still rich compared with Labor voters and they're still dependent on income from shares through superannuation. They also start buying more shares.

In all phases of life, Greens are distinct from the typical Labor, Liberal or Nationals demographic but remain supportive of Labor for social rather than economic reasons. Not unlike middle-class Catholics in the 1950s and 60s.

But, as in the 50s and 60s, the evidence from 2007 shows the Greens bloc is shifting away from Labor in terms of voting for its economic, rather than its social, interests.

Politically, in 2007 the Greens were strongly linked to all the main groups swinging to the Coalition after preferences. A big Greens vote in the inner-city professional seats meant a swing to the Coalition after preferences, because the Greens took more primary votes from Labor candidates than they gave back in second preferences, even though their preference drift to Labor averaged almost 80 per cent.

While they were still Greens at heart, these Greens who voted for John Howard after preferences tended to be of the lower income, more mainstream variety. That was because, in the main, they had more children.

But the key to understanding the political effect of the Greens is where their votes came from, rather than where they went.

This is the context in which the sudden jump in Newspoll's Greens primary vote can be viewed. If we compare the last Newspoll with the 2007 election, the Greens primary vote has risen by 8.2 per cent. The ALP primary vote has fallen by 8.3 per cent in the same period.

Even if 80 per cent of these extra Greens votes of about 8 per cent preference back to Labor, this change in the Green-Labor vote since 2007 still loses Labor an extra 1.6 per cent of the preferred vote nationally if repeated this year.

The point for the broader Labor movement to bear in mind is that Labor is expecting to win four out of five preferences from the richest and best educated group of voters in the community after imposing a tax on their main source of income. Putting this as politely as one can, it looks unlikely.

It's hard to see Labor winning from here if the slump in Labor's primary vote isn't repaired at the expense of the Greens.

For starters, Melbourne and Sydney seats would be lost to the Greens, and perhaps Denison in Hobart.