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Climate change is already costing lives and dollars

By Barrie Pittock and Andrew Glikson - posted Tuesday, 22 December 2009


South-eastern Australia has experienced in the last decade three major outbreaks of widespread bushfires, in 2003, 2006 and 2009. This is unprecedented in recorded Australian history. While individual outbreaks of widespread fire have occurred before (1851, 1898, 1926, 1939, and 1983), never has this happened several times in the one decade. Clearly this is related to the prolonged dry conditions in south-eastern Australia which has greatly reduced fuel moisture, increasing fire intensity and spread.

In addition to property and lives lost (in 2003, 530 houses and four lives; in 2009, 1,800 houses and 173 lives), there are losses of infrastructure, disruption of activities and other costs to the economy (schools, small businesses, farms, tourism, and so on). Losses or changes in natural ecosystems will follow.

Reliable estimates of the total cost of the 2009 bushfires are not yet available, but a preliminary estimate from Allianz Insurance put insured losses at about $1 billion. The Melbourne Age on June 28, 2009, reported total losses at about $1.6 billion and insured losses at some $940 million.

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The increasing frequency of so-called “natural disasters”, including coastal storm damage and flooding, has already led to significant coastal erosion, with responses from insurance companies and local and regional governments.

Insurance companies are used to the concept of uncertainty and risk. They manage their risk by adjusting insurance premiums or refusing coverage, especially of damage due to sea and storm surge effects. As documented in several recent state and federal reports, local and state governments are also learning to reduce their risk of claims of negligence, lack of due diligence, and compensation, as well as acting out of concern for the welfare of their constituents.

The all-party House of Representatives Committee on Climate Change, Water, Environment and the Arts recently released a unanimous extensive report on management of the coastal zone. It identified the threat to property values, the liability of public authorities and private landowners, responses to possible withdrawal of insurance, and the possibility of governments prohibiting continued occupation of land or future building development on properties due to increasing coastal hazards. The report noted that 80 per cent of the Australian population lives in the coastal zone, and some 711,000 addresses are within three kilometres of the coast and less than six metres above sea level.

According to this report, quoting from an Insurance Council of Australia submission, “Preliminary estimates of the value of property in Australia exposed to this risk range from $50 billion to $150 billion. The figure depends upon the extent of sea level rise assumed (in the order of 1 metre to 3 metres by 2100) and the effectiveness or otherwise of potential mitigation measures. Even if paid for over 50 years this amounts to a cost to replace these assets of some $1 billion to $3 billion per annum in real terms.”

Similar estimates come from the Department of Climate Change, namely “up to $63 billion of existing residential buildings are potentially at risk of inundation from a 1.1 metre sea-level rise with a lower and upper estimate of risk identified for between 157,000 and 274,000 individual buildings”.

Property owners and developers are already facing new design rules and restrictions such as greater minimum heights above sea level, building design requirements and even portability of dwellings.

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Such considerations suggest that many seaside and estuarine property owners who have invested in land or in holiday or full-time residences (especially marina developments) are, or soon will be, facing higher insurance premiums, increased restrictions on development and reduced property values. Some may soon have to “retreat” further from the coast, since defensive measures such as sea walls will in many cases be too costly or prohibited.

Climate change impacts and costs are thus not merely something for future generations to bear, but are being experienced now. We are committed to large and growing costs arising from the impacts of climate change to date, and a virtual guarantee of rising losses in the near future.

For most people there appear to be two options: leave it to future generations and avoid any cost today; or grasp the environmental and economic insight science is offering, by way of impacts, adaptation and renewable energy and sequestering technologies.

In reality, climate change impacts are already costing lives and billions of dollars. These costs will increase rapidly if we do not act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

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About the Authors

Dr. Barrie Pittock, PSM, is a retired climate scientist with over 200 scientific papers or book chapters published as well as several books, and a co-author of a number of international reports. His most recent book is Climate Change: The Science, Impacts and Solutions (2nd. edition), Barrie Pittock, March 2009: see http://www.publish.csiro.au/pid/6010.htm

Dr Andrew Glikson is an Earth and paleoclimate scientist at the Research School of Earth Science, the School of Archaeology and Anthropology and the Planetary Science Institute, Australian National University.

Other articles by these Authors

All articles by Barrie Pittock
All articles by Andrew Glikson

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