It is not implausible to suggest that public support for the ETS could be obliterated. One has only to see the polls which illustrate how much lower public support for environmental solutions is when higher user-pay costs are indicated to the survey respondent. And there is the possibility of public anger influencing policy, as was the case when the Howard government was forced to back down and end the indexing of petrol excise in line with inflation.
The other option for Abbott’s leadership will be to promote alternative policies which can address rising greenhouse gas emissions. This may include a more straightforward carbon tax, as suggested by Abbott in October when he cited such a view being promoted by leading economists Kenneth Rogoff and Joseph Stiglitz. It may also include better land management practices to retain more carbon, economically beneficial carbon sequestration schemes, and changes to building design (Tony Abbott, “Carbon vanity will be Rudd’s downfall”, The Australian, October 19, 2009).
To conclude, it is likely that the Coalition under Abbott’s leadership will use every idea it can to win over voters. There is simply too little time for the Coalition to build a revolutionary, well-thought out alternative to the ETS. After all, the ETS has dominated debate for several years and the anti-ETS movement may have too much to overcome, including the statements and positions of leading Coalition members such as Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey and Ian Macfarlane. Should John Howard reaffirm his support for an ETS soon or during 2010, then Abbott’s leadership would indeed come under immense pressure.
Advertisement
It certainly does not look great for Abbott. A December 1, 2009 ninemsn poll shows Abbott well behind Malcolm Turnbull as the preferred Coalition leader, hardly the most desirable start for an aspiring prime minister.
Abbott is an intelligent, passionate, determined (and even progressive) politician. But if he can stop the ETS from being implemented or even reverse its acceptance should the legislation be passed through support from rebel Liberal MPs, it will indeed be one of the most famous and unlikely events of Australian political history based on recent debate over the previous two years, no matter what one thinks about the ETS.
Discuss in our Forums
See what other readers are saying about this article!
Click here to read & post comments.
27 posts so far.