The new politics of the global energy crisis

Whether or not the Liberal Party can reconstruct itself as a truly modern party, which is what Turnbull claims he represents, is doubtful. They just do not seem to have the brains to generate appropriate ideas. Furthermore, they will have to purge the Parliament, if not the Party, of the dinosaurs. Meanwhile, of course, their supposed allies, the Nationals, are determined to head straight over a political cliff as they bank on the belief that their constituents can be bamboozled forever. In reality, rural Australians will feel the effects of global warming and peak oil first and hardest, and they will soon figure who has been talking straight to them.

So there is a very real chance that the Liberals will implode, with perhaps some heading into the ALP or even the Greens, some creating a new party or holding on as the Liberal rump, and some - the dinosaurs - joining the Nationals to create the first genuinely right wing party since One Nation tried to do it.

If Turnbull can retain the leadership and get the CPRS through he may be able manage a reasonably effective transformation, but he will have to move on the dinosaurs and that will be bloody (perhaps worse than Labor’s war with the Groupers). If Hockey becomes leader but without the CPRS, he will be fatally compromised. If Abbott or Andrews becomes leader the process of collapse will likely be markedly accelerated.

As for the Labor Party - which harbours a few dinosaurs of its own - the collapse of the Liberals and the perfidy of the Nationals will initially help them, but they also face a tricky problem. They must at some point reconcile the science of global warming with their policies (radically increase the carbon cost) and also act to deal with peak oil. The Greens currently hold the high ground here - they are growing in support and maturing politically - and Labor will have to figure out how to deal with them. Working in coalition has never been a Labor habit but they may have to consider it sooner or later. The Greens will also have to manage the transition from the political margins to potential coalition government, with the loss of idealism that will bring.

Overall, we could well see a fragmentation of the Australian political landscape as Party members and even politicians shift about, as policy again outweighs personality, as the new e-media takes off, and as the fast-evolving global situation presents new problems. Certainly, the old days of relatively stable two-party politics - whatever one thought of them - look to be over for good. The new situation demands much more of the political process than the old two-party system could ever deliver.