Copenhagen: what we must demand

Global loss of natural water storage, mountain glaciers, is already occurring, placing at risk continued flow of rivers on which more than a billion people depend for drinking water, food production and energy generation.

Rising temperatures will speed-up glacier melting, initially causing river flooding, ultimately the loss of flows sufficient to sustain the major populations now dependent on them as a source of water. This will further reduce human habitat and increase competition for reduced availability of essentials for life.

Inspection and monitoring

To avoid development of these catastrophes the 25 largest greenhouse gas emitters must reduce burning fossil fuels by 2050 such that emissions are reduced to 50 per cent of 1990 levels. They must agree on annual reduction targets which ensure that the 2050 target is achieved. Failure to agree should result in the UN General Assembly adopting and approving enforcement of annual targets.

The UN must create a body to monitor, inspect and report on action taken by major emitters to achieve these targets. Countries refusing to submit to inspection should be subjected to penalties for non-compliance.

Enforcement

Copenhagen must not be another Kyoto, devoid of compulsion or enforcement measures, enabling countries to ignore their obligations to reduce their emissions. Major emitters not complying with agreed or enforced emission targets must be penalised.

The most effective penalty is to impose a carbon tax on the national production of each defaulter and apply it to their exports. The effect would be to increase the cost of those exports, stimulating importers to purchase from cheaper lower emitting sources. The cheapest products would come from those countries making the most effort to reduce emissions and therefore attracting the lowest carbon tax.

Countries not making such an effort would find their export trade falling sharply and rapidly, compelling them to reduce export production and, in so doing, reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Imposition of such a tax would place emphasis on the need to reduce emissions in order to obtain economic advantage, rather than the present arrangement where ability to produce energy from burning fossil fuels in the most efficient manner possible yields economic advantage - and continued global warming.

Conclusion

The world can not be held to ransom by the greed or self interest of the largest economies. If they can not agree on measures to avoid the catastrophes of global warming, they must be compelled to do so. If Copenhagen fails to reach agreements necessary to ensure human survival, the UN General Assembly must impose and enforce targets which do so.