Get tough or prepare for a flood

The government then argues that the worldwide security situation has deteriorated. This is also not true. Indeed, in some places it has improved. The situation has always been difficult in source countries such as Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, and it is arguable that Afghanistan was significantly less safe under the Taliban than it is now. Likewise, Sri Lanka was long beset with a Tamil insurgency that now appears to have been defeated militarily.

It is clear that it is not the push factors that have changed. What has made the task of people-smugglers advertising their wares easier has been the unwinding of the measures implemented by the Howard government.

When people-smuggling was at its height - about the year 2000 - officials estimated there was a pipeline of more than 10,000 people between Indonesia and the Middle East engaging with people-smugglers with a view to travelling to Australia.

It is hard to see how the situation would be very different today, with more than 2,000 arrivals since August 2008 and more than 300 intercepted by Indonesian and Australian authorities during the past weekend.

Only a fundamental rethink by the Rudd government of its immigration policy will bring this insidious people smuggling activity to an end.