Government stimulus is proving fragile

If the RBA has started to increase interest rates before the stimulus jobs bubble pops, March next year may not be an auspicious time for an early election for the new Australian Labor Government.

The latest Newspoll summaries show the welfare regions gaining most benefit from the stimulus have withdrawn support for the government, as the political impact of cash payments has diminished. Political short term memory is the very simple reason why Labor’s vote is down in the regions nationally and in regional Queensland where 2007 levels of support for the Nationals have been resumed.

The Hawke, Keating and Howard governments all lost votes or elections or both, after their first election win and the Rudd Government, despite the promised outlay of $95 billion in stimulus payments is still only tracking at the same primary vote obtained when it was elected in November 2007.

The profiling shows marginal Labor voters live in the middle income outer urban areas now hardest hit by rising unemployment. And they’re mortgaged to the hilt, thanks in part to the first home buyer’s scheme. These voters are one serious economic shock away from the political undecided columns.