Obama’s Middle East challenge - part II

Responding to the protest by all three opposition candidates, Khamanei instructed the Guardian Council on June 15 to “consider precisely” their complaints. Describing the announced result as “provisional”, the council’s spokesman said that it would rule within the next 10 days. While conceding a possible change in the final tally after a recount, he ruled out a wholesale re-run of the election. Therefore the street protests are continuing with a plan to pray in mosques on Friday for those martyred in the official clamp-down.

And these protests have been massive; in some cases bi-partisan. Reformist forces joined the pragmatic conservative camp in voicing their anger. Of note, the conservative camp is led by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president, who was beaten by Ahmadinejad in the 2005 poll. During the recent election campaign, Ahmadinejad attacked Rafsanjani as corrupt and derided his three challengers as Rafsanjani’s puppets.

Rafsanjani is chairman of the Assembly of Experts, a directly elected constitutional body, composed exclusively of clerics, with an eight-year tenure. Based in the holy city of Qom, it elects the Supreme Leader for eight years, and monitors his performance. Normally it meets twice a year, and considers, inter alia, its select committee’s report on the Supreme Leader’s performance. As the Assembly’s chairman, however, Rafsanjani is entitled to call an emergency session.

During the last weekend Rafsanjani reportedly travelled to Qom to sound out the Assembly’s leading members on debating the contested election. The overall judgment was that so far it has been an administrative - not constitutional - affair.

But that could change if the Assembly’s select committee concludes that Khamanei failed to act as the neutral overseer of the election as required of him constitutionally. If the Assembly then summons him to explain his behaviour in person, that could shake the very foundation of the Islamic Republic. A destabilised Iran will set back Obama’s efforts to mend fences with the Muslim world. For now the turmoil in Iran has left the regional capitals confused. Though Washington has refrained from passing judgment on the poll itself, Iran’s foreign ministry summoned the Swiss ambassador, who represents American interests, to protest “interventionist” statements by the United States.

If the renewed mandate of Ahmadinejad is endorsed by the Guardian Council, then the Gulf Arab countries, Jordan and Egypt will act to contain the widening influence of Iran in the Arab world - as manifested in its backing for Hamas in Palestine and Hezbollah in Lebanon. They will get even closer to the US, and the Saudis will try hard to break up the Syrian-Iranian alliance. Obama will find himself having to deal with a re-elected Ahmadinejad, more obdurate on the nuclear question than ever before.

However, it is worth noting that Iran’s major defence and foreign policies are decided by the 11-member Supreme National Security Council chaired by the President. Of these, only two are the personal representatives of the Supreme Leader.

The bottom line is that on the nuclear issue there is an almost unanimous backing among Iranians for their country to exercise its right to enrich uranium, which is allowed under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that Iran has signed.

So even if Mousavi did succeed Ahmadinejad, there would be no change in Tehran’s stance on this issue. What would be different would be the style - more measured and nuanced, with diplomatic niceties, shorn of the anti-Israeli, anti-West bluster characteristic of Ahmadinejad, which seems to go down well with the rural population of Iran where he undoubtedly trumped Mousavi at the last poll.