Living in fear

Horses and cows do not lurk in the undergrowth then leap out an attack people, of course. Instead people riding horses fall off them; and motorists swerving to avoid cows on the road late at night crash their cars. Of the 128 deaths involving animals counted by the coroner’s system, 40 were caused by horses, cows (and bulls) were linked to 20 and dogs were involved in 12 including a number resulting from tripping over the poor animals. Dog attacks featured in seven deaths, compared to 11 caused by sharks and eight by snakes.

As can be seen from these statistics in public health terms much of the debate over shark attacks last summer, such as calls for nets off beaches, and the berating of state governments for not doing more about the menace (it was never clear what) was simply froth and foam. The death toll from horse riding is far greater than anything sharks do - and the injury toll probably greater - yet no one has suggested closing riding stables or forbidding gymkhanas. All these figures are, incidentally, tiny compared to those for suicide, heart disease or road accidents.

This almost constant misperception of risk leads to bad decisions, both by individuals and governments. Individuals may, say, avoid swimming for fear of sharks without realising that the resulting lack of exercise puts them at greater risk of a heart attack. Governments may put far more money than can be usefully spent into countering terrorism, but neglect research into diabetes.

As noted earlier, the problem seems to be getting worse. Part of the problem with the likes of swine flue and SARS is that outbreaks of new diseases can be identified very quickly and tracked, with information available hourly, so there is something to write about. The diseases are not more deadly, just more visible. However, mainstream media is arguably also becoming more desperate for readers, and so more willing to whip up hysteria. Last but certainly not least, people seem to be more willing to listen to this sort of alarmism. They are becoming more fearful, and their fear has nothing to do with the actual risks involved.

Better education in the causes of death may help, but I doubt it. If people want to be scared then they are quite capable of ignoring statistics. The real problem is to avoid letting this fearfulness affect policy.