Obama unravels the Bush legacy in Iraq

Many obstacles remain and many key issues remain unresolved. The US administration clearly hopes that 2009 will be the year when Iraqis can resolve key differences and promote a relative form of national harmony so desperately craved.

Much of this hope lies on the Iraqi general elections set for the end of this year, which promise to bring Sunnis firmly into the political arena, as well as revise coalitions and power-sharing.

However, how productive a platform the elections will serve depends much on what Baghdad can achieve in the remaining months leading up to the elections. If the track-record is anything to go by, then there will be a few optimists, with deep-rooted animosity and mistrust still at large.

The Iraqi desire to implement constitutional articles such as article 140 - adoption of a national hydrocarbon law - and implement a system of governance that can appease all parties, is largely out of the hands of the US. This doesn’t mean, however, that the dawn of the end of the US in Iraq, means that the US can be a by-stander in developments. If 2009 doesn’t become the all defining milestone in Iraqi independence and violence erupts, the realisation of the anticipated US withdrawal in August 2010 will be interesting indeed.

Obama urged the Iraqi Prime Minister to quicken the reconciliation pace, a notion that the Bush administration have been pushing for years, with the focus still largely on enticing minority Sunnis into the political fold as well as the predominantly Shiite based security forces.

Baghdad has often promised much when it comes to meeting US benchmarks but in essence has made insufficient achievements to foster real progress.

Meeting with the Kurdistan Region Delegation

Obama also met with Kurdistan Region President Massaud Barzani to discuss a number of situations in Kurdistan Region and Iraq. Pressing agenda items include the edgy relationship between KRG and Baghdad and assurances that the Obama administration will not neglect Kurdish ties at the expense of other alliances.

One of the looming dangers in Iraq is the increasing stand-off between Erbil and Baghdad. The US administration must ensure that bilateral ties are promoted between both sides and active steps are taken by the US to resolve fundamental differences between each side, particularly over disputed areas and jurisdiction of security forces, long before there is any reduction of US forces.

While the US has, so far, chosen a more passive role in the disputes between the Kurds and Baghdad, pointing to the democratic apparatus in place to resolve such disputes, it is their duty to ensure that the disputes are indeed resolved using democratic principles. The US must not leave Iraq in a perilous and tentative state, regardless of its commitments to withdraw from Iraq or any other pressing matters that it may have on the table.

Moreover, the US should ensure that the enticement of Baathists into the political sphere by the al-Maliki government is not at the expense of the greater peace between Kurds and Arabs. Baghdad has been looking to diminish Kurdish power and letting prominent former Baathist hardliners out of the ropes, may well see them in direct confrontation with Kurds in the contested areas. A promotion of Sunni power in the north of Iraq, may well come as a trade-off to maintain Sunni-Shiite peace further south.

Reach out to the Muslim world

Clearly, success in the Middle East goes much further than just achieving a relative notion of success in Iraq. US foreign policy requires much needed healing across the greater Muslim world.

Obama’s keenness to visit Turkey so early in his tenure comes as no surprise, with its strategic position as well as its perception as an important benchmark for the region, with Turkey housing a Muslim democracy, a pro-Western outlook and secular institutions. Obama is keen to introduce a new dawn in US relations with the Muslim world, far from the legacy and negative perception of Bush.