Queensland - the final analysis

The LNP has generated some support from its policy of splitting Brisbane’s children’s hospital into two - which is playing well on the north side of town - and from the jobs created from the development of a uranium industry - something well received in northern mining seats like Mount Isa.

When applying state wide polling results to Queensland State seats, we need to caution readers that the range of swings across Queensland is enormous. Last election there was no state-wide primary swing to Labor, but the range of primary swings across all seats was 43 per cent. In other words, applying a uniform swing model is pretty stupid. But we did it anyway.

The results? The LNP could win up to 15 seats, including Indooroopilly from the Greens, and hold all its own seats, leaving the LNP on 41 and the ALP on 44, with four Independents, meaning a hung Parliament under the control of generally pro-LNP independents.

Ironically enough, this is the situation created for Peter Beattie by Pauline Hanson in 1998; when Beattie went on to form a minority Government with Independent support.

This could be bad news for Anna Bligh, but not necessarily for Kevin Rudd. He may be about to say hello to his new best friend in Queensland.