The US, not winning in Iraq and losing in Afghanistan

Now the Obama administration realises that even significant democratic success in Iraq will not be enough to dispel the negative perception of the US in the Middle East and the general antagonism felt by the Muslim world. Bush’s foreign policy to a great extent alienated the broader Middle Eastern landscape, prompting Obama to vow to listen and not dictate as he sought to heal the wounds inflicted since the turn of the century.

The US and the West simply can not afford to judge the Middle East in terms of its parts, without looking at the bigger picture. The Middle East has a many entanglements and influences.

Fire-fighting or preventing the fire?

The plight of the US and its allies in Afghanistan can be very much likened to a fire fighting exercise without truly striking at the root of the problem. Dropping their guard has allowed the Taliban to regroup and pose as menacing a threat as ever.

Just as the Iraqi tide was only finally turned by appeasing insurgent elements and appealing to the moderate masses, the Afghan war will only succeed by winning the hearts and minds of the population.

It is down to the Afghan population to determine how this war will pan out, and not the military arsenal of the West. Like Iraq, Afghanistan, too, has suffered from deep-rooted disparity and lack of national unity. Like much of the Iraqi population, the Afghan people have suffered tremendously from three decades of deadly wars that have shattered the economy and the country’s infrastructure.

With such a crippling disadvantage, progression will not be fast; the foundation to a new flourishing state must begin with solid governance in Kabul that can quickly assume overall security, provide basic social services, fight corruption, promote unity and entice moderate elements into the political arena.

In the short-term, the decision to divert thousands of US troops to Afghanistan will help to bridge a much needed security gap in the country. While the US administration may have to “restart” its mission in Afghanistan, it is now faced with a much tenser regional climate. Pakistan is facing a difficult battle of its own with growing friction between it and the US, and with key Western allies not keen to extend their military adventure, fearing they will be sucked into a vacuum for many years to come.

In 2001, given the extraordinary events of 9-11, most Western allies were swift to respond positively to Bush’s plea that they were “with us or against us”. However, the economic and political landscape has changed a great deal since then.

The country’s presidential election this year will be an important milestone and a chance for the Kabul political hierarchy to get a firm grip with much needed improvement in governance.

Ultimately, it’s the Afghan government that will sway the direction of the country: all the West can do is buy time and short-term stability, while Afghans fast-track progress and move towards self-sufficiency. Improvements in the political circles and basic services will go a long way to improving the mindset of the Afghan people.

Adapting tactics

Afghan officials have welcome Barack Obama’s willingness to adapt the tactics used by the US to deal with moderate insurgency in Iraq. There is a realisation that the fight starts on the ground in Afghan towns and villages.

Intelligence from sections of the Afghan population has already been a major factor in the battle against the Taliban and extending this, by engaging the local population more directly both in terms of tactics and military means, will be crucial.