Labor isn't selling this time

Its final appeal is: "I don't think you understand, Mr Springborg, I just can't risk you." But voters have already made up their minds that it would be hard to do worse than under Labor. The risk at this stage is looking minimal.

In contrast, the LNP ad stars a folder that opens to reveal various claims about Labor's record on waste and mismanagement, all of which have newspaper clippings, numbers and footnotes attached. Voters give this ad marks for being factual. The format isn't new, but it doesn't draw attention to itself in the way that the Labor ad does.

It also works to reinforce the LNP's criticism that Labor can't govern well, while providing support for its contention that the LNP can fund its promises out of government efficiencies.

There's less to analyse in the positive ads.

The main problem for Labor is that even its supporters will frequently admit that its performance hasn't matched its rhetoric. They just think that the LNP would be worse.

Other voters think that no one could do any worse. No positive ad about Labor's record is going to work.

The LNP positive ad is a bit of nothing, making assurances about the future, but with no hard facts.

It's inoffensive, and that is the best thing that it has going for it: which pretty much sums up why Springborg and the LNP are ahead at this stage.

The audience ratings of these ads explains some puzzling things about the election. One is that while Labor normally significantly outspends its opponents, it appears to be underspending in this election. There's no point running ads if nothing you can say works.

Can Labor save this election? Probably not, but whether it runs to win or to come a good second, there is only one viable strategy open to it.

Labor needs to run 89 separate campaigns in 89 seats, hiding the Premier, and exposing the local members as much as possible.

On the other side, Springborg needs to associate local Labor candidates as strongly as possible with their leader and their party. Many of them have strong personal votes and may be hard to shift, particularly given voters' lack of enthusiasm for the LNP.