Obama: the view from Iraq

As thousands of Kurds watched the election it was the candidate that represented the next best thing to George W. Bush, presidential candidate John McCain, who was the default man of choice in Iraqi Kurdistan.

When Obama raised Kurdish tensions, by declaring his open intent to withdraw troops from Iraq as soon as possible, McCain remained defiant, determined to stay the course and not allow hard-won security gains in Iraq to disappear.

Now Kurds will watch developments in the US with close interest to see what policy Obama adopts towards the Kurds. It would seem that US foreign policy in Iraq will be in for a shakeup under Obama, so whether the Kurds will be given commitment and protection, as American attention turns elsewhere, is uncertain.

US bases in Kurdistan

The willingness and encouragement for the establishment of permanent US bases in Kurdistan Region may have stoked national sentiments further south in recent times; however, the concept is nothing new. Kurds have campaigned and supported the idea of some form of residual US presence in Kurdistan, regardless of any greater US-Iraqi security pact.

It's hardly a secret that the majority of Kurds in Iraq are pro-Western. However, blatant endorsement of Kurdish autonomy by the new Obama administration may be nothing short of wishful thinking. Just as the Kurds rely heavily on the US now and in the future, the US relies heavily on broader Iraqi endorsement and Arab support.

Status of Forces Agreement (Sofa) stalled

With the chances of passing the security pact during the remaining time of Bush’s stewardship now slim, the chances of an agreement before year end, when US forces will find themselves in a legal vacuum, is now also diminishing. What was deemed to be a final document awaiting a vote by Iraq's Parliament, has now been returned, somewhat disappointedly in the eyes of the Bush administration, along with a fresh set of proposals and a request for further rework.

US officials had previously said the chance of further revisions was unlikely. Despite recent encouragement from Bush that a deal would be struck before year end, the US analysis of the Iraqi recommendations, coupled with scepticism from high-ranking US officials, may well mean that the security pact will become one of the first testing challenges facing Obama as the new US president.

Kurdistan President Massoud Barzani, recently in Washington for talks, emphasised his support for the idea of stationing US troops in Kurdistan if the security pact was not signed by the end of the year.

His remarks drew a strong rebuke, somewhat unsurprisingly, from anti-US hardliners, namely from Moqtada al-Sadr's bloc, but also ironically from leading Kurdish figures and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. Talabani's statement that all Iraqi constitutional laws apply to the Kurdistan Region was inevitable. Talabani may be an influential Kurdish leader, but as the symbolic figurehead of Iraq, he was hardly going to embrace the idea in public with open arms.

The attitude of a majority of Iraqi politicians who wish to be seen standing up for national pride and not ceding to US influence, has meant the agreement, already well diluted, may require further downgrading - much to the annoyance of the US.

However, as much as Baghdad can ill-afford to lose the support of the US, conversely Washington, without common agreement to remain in Iraq, will suffer a huge humiliation come January 1, 2009, with the absence of any symbolic legal cover.