The Rudd strategy Part I: political expertise or political expediency

Other grand plans that will consume China's steel and labour include a string of massive dam projects, new major ports and shipbuilding facilities, water diversion schemes, the world's biggest coal fired and nuclear power generation expansion program, the Shanghai 2010 World Expo, new railways and highways, expansion of the Qinghai Tibet rail network across Tibet, industrialisation of Tibet, massive oil and gas pipelines and post Sichuan quake reconstruction.

China is constructing the world's biggest shipyard near Shanghai at a cost of US$3.62 billion for completion in 2015 when China will overtake South Korea as the world's biggest shipbuilder.

China is confident that revenues from new vessels and breaking and repair work will continue to grow and with it, domestic demand for China's steel and more employment.

China is confident of its ability to increase domestic demand, not only to survive the economic crisis, but to continue its record economic growth. It also claims a massive war chest of US$1.9 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.

So! Is Mr Rudd correct in his assumptions on China?

Closer scrutiny of what is happening in the US, Europe, Asia and especially China, reveals the answers and Mr Rudd would have been fully informed of the situation during his closed meeting with the captains of industry.

Like Australia, China's economy is reliant on increasing export growth.

To maintain export growth China imports raw materials, energy and components that combine with extensive government subsidies, low cost services and ongoing cheap labour. To remain competitive, China's export growth also relies on high volumes and low margins. Goods are mostly produced in factories manned by huge labour forces and not highly automated facilities.

China is committed to its growth plans for 2020 to provide for 2030 when its population is expected to reach 1.6 billion.

Where does this leave Kyoto?

Rudd loudly proclaimed Australia as a driving global innovator in greenhouse gas emission reduction, confident in his ability to use his personal relationship and diplomacy to motivate China to meaningful emission cuts.

As a direct result of its record growth, China is now the world biggest polluting nation and greenhouse gas emitter, and without meaningful emission caps within a global framework, will undermine any commitment by the developed nations to reduce global warming.

China is also inflexible in its "growth at all costs" policy, blaming the developed nations for global warming, while conveniently forgetting that the emissions it has produced over the last 25 years exceeds that produced by the developed nations over the last 100 years.

Blatantly ignoring the living and working conditions throughout China, Beijing spent billions of dollars and hundred of millions of human resources on the Beijing Olympics to flaunt China's wealth and “can do” capability. Yet with this extravagant splurge, China expects the world to classify it as a developing nation for the cash benefits. Consider just what that misuse of cash and human resources could have achieved if Beijing had acted responsibly in addressing the key issues of environmental degradation, desertification, water pollution, water shortages and improving the lifestyle of the low paid and rural poor.