Like what you've read?

On Line Opinion is the only Australian site where you get all sides of the story. We don't
charge, but we need your support. Here�s how you can help.

  • Advertise

    We have a monthly audience of 70,000 and advertising packages from $200 a month.

  • Volunteer

    We always need commissioning editors and sub-editors.

  • Contribute

    Got something to say? Submit an essay.


 The National Forum   Donate   Your Account   On Line Opinion   Forum   Blogs   Polling   About   
On Line Opinion logo ON LINE OPINION - Australia's e-journal of social and political debate

Subscribe!
Subscribe





On Line Opinion is a not-for-profit publication and relies on the generosity of its sponsors, editors and contributors. If you would like to help, contact us.
___________

Syndicate
RSS/XML


RSS 2.0

Revisiting the 'Axis of Evil' - Part I

By Dilip Hiro - posted Monday, 11 August 2008


Oil futures are extremely sensitive to the state of play in the hydrocarbon-rich Persian Gulf. Within days of the news that William Burns, a US State Department official, would join the diplomatic team, led by the European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, for July 19 talks with Iran's Saeed Jalili in Geneva, the price of oil fell by 12 per cent.

With the soaring price of oil leading to a spurt in the cost of everything, from food to consumer items, the scene is set for inflation to climb. Buffeted by the sub-prime mortgage crisis for the past year, a slump in the housing market and rising inflation, US Federal Reserve Bank and Treasury Department chiefs are scrambling to defuse one crisis after another and keep recession at bay.

Recent history shows that when the US is in recession, the party in power in Washington loses. That's what happened to President Jimmy Carter, a Democrat, in 1980 and to George H.W. Bush, a Republican, in 1992.

Advertisement

A decline in oil price is a prerequisite for circumventing recession. And that’s linked with excluding military action against Iran.

As it is, of the four top-most policymakers in Washington, Gates and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice remain committed to pursuing diplomacy, with Vice President Dick Cheney favouring military strikes. Bush continues to display a split mind - a contrast to what happened in 2003, when Bush, Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld were all for invading Iraq and ignored the ambivalent Secretary of State Colin Powell. Now, fearing a calamitous petroleum price hike caused by nervous oil traders, Bush is tilted toward a multilateral approach to Tehran.

In the diplomatic arena, however, the key missing element is the security guarantee for Iran. It was left to Thomas Fingar, director of the US National Intelligence Council, to point out this lacuna. "Iran has real security needs," he said July 9, adding "We are part of the reason Iran feels insecure".

When, in the course of preparing a package of incentives for Iran by six nations in mid-May, Russia raised the idea that the group should give Iran security guarantees to ease Middle East tensions. Bush dismissed the idea summarily.

As a veto-wielding permanent member of the UN Security Council, Russia counts. Its foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has pointed out that neither the US nor Israel offers any evidence that Iran is pursuing a nuclear-weapons program. Indeed, Washington's own National Intelligence Estimate, released in December, stated that Iran had ceased working on a nuclear military program in autumn 2003.

While politicians and experts dabble in speculation, military commanders are mandated to prepare plans for dealing with worst scenarios.

Advertisement

So what Retired General John Abizaid, commander of CENTCOM from July 2003 to March 2007, has to say is worth pondering. "I believe that we have the power to deter Iran, should it become nuclear," he said in his talk at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. "There are ways to live with a nuclear Iran. We lived with a nuclear Soviet Union, we've lived with a nuclear China, and we're living with [other] nuclear powers as well."

  1. Pages:
  2. 1
  3. Page 2
  4. All

Reprinted with permission from YaleGlobal Online - www.yaleglobal.yale.edu - (c) 2008 Yale Center for the Study of Globalization.



Discuss in our Forums

See what other readers are saying about this article!

Click here to read & post comments.

27 posts so far.

Share this:
reddit this reddit thisbookmark with del.icio.us Del.icio.usdigg thisseed newsvineSeed NewsvineStumbleUpon StumbleUponsubmit to propellerkwoff it

About the Author

Dilip Hiro is the author of The Iranian Labyrinth and Secrets and Lies: Operation ‘Iraqi Freedom’ and After and, most recently, Blood of the Earth: The Battle for the World's Vanishing Oil Resources, published by Nation Books.

Other articles by this Author

All articles by Dilip Hiro

Creative Commons LicenseThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.

Article Tools
Comment 27 comments
Print Printable version
Subscribe Subscribe
Email Email a friend
Advertisement

About Us Search Discuss Feedback Legals Privacy