Crisis and response - part two

Under such circumstances, it’s likely that Burma’s generals will continue to cling to their ASEAN partners. India and China are big and powerful, and the generals don’t really trust either.

China, more than any other country, may have supplied Burma with military hardware since the generals crushed the first main uprising against their rule in August-September 1988. But China is a new friend for the generals. During the decade spanning 1968-78, China provided massive support for the insurgent Communist Party of Burma (CPB) - and junta leader General Than Shwe as well as his deputy General Maung Aye spent years fighting the CPB in the north-eastern mountains, watching Chinese bullets kill their men. The CPB collapsed in April 1989 following a mutiny among the hill-tribe rank and file of its army against the party’s aging, mainly Burman Maoist leadership.

But China continues to maintain close relations with the successor of the CPB, the United Wa State Army. The UWSA has a ceasefire agreement with the Burmese government, but nevertheless has strengthened its forces in recent years and, according to Jane’s Intelligence Review of March 2008, taken delivery of Chinese-made 12.7-millimeter and 14.5-millimeter anti-aircraft guns and 122-millimeter howitzers, apart from mortars and small arms. Clearly, the Chinese are not putting all their eggs in one basket; if something were to happen to the military rulers of Burma, Beijing would still have a foothold inside the country.

Relations with India are more complex. The role Indian migrants played as intermediaries between the colonial British and the native population has not been forgotten and has given rise to sometimes fierce anti-Indian sentiments. Even today, people of South Asian origin are often looked down upon in Burma, referred to as “kala”, a Burmese pejorative for “foreigner” or “Indian”.

As for the generals, they remember that India until recently was a staunch supporter of the country’s pro-democracy movement. But, to counter China’s growing influence in Burma - and take advantage of new trade arrangements - India has moved closer to the generals.

Burma is likely to accept some aid from China and India, while keeping some distance. ASEAN will remain the main partner on the ground and conduit for aid from other countries. At the same time, international pressure on Burma is bound to continue, especially if the limited effort proves inadequate for Burma’s needs.

In short, Burma’s generals are in for a delicate balancing act. They must also maintain the hitherto remarkable unity among top level officers - as well as the loyalty of the rank and file of the armed forces, many of whom have relatives affected by the cyclone.

What began as a cyclone and humanitarian catastrophe has taken on political dimensions, which could open a series of challenges and different scenarios for the country’s future. Generals Than Shwe and Maung Aye should consider their options - because it’s far from certain that they’ll be part of that future.