Iraq: contentious, controversial and explosive

The defeat of al-Qaida in many quarters has now resulted in a “mosaic war” across Iraq with a collection of battles rather than any concentrated fronts. However, promise of reconciliation by Baghdad must be finally delivered if Iraq is to stand any chance of capitalising on the few positives gains.

An all-encompassing concord remains intangible. Just recently, Shiite and Sunni blocs in parliament boycotted a conference on Iraqi reconciliation. True reconciliation may yet be a dream while in the interim the US may have to suffer the repercussions of a lack of an Iraqi appetite for urgency to unity and compromise.

One can not understate the rivalry and sectarian passion that underpins the current gulf between the factions in Iraq. Sectarian animosity lasting hundreds of years can not be healed in a matter of years. At a minimum, many military strategists reference a 10-year average for insurgencies, with an expected drop in strength and recruitment after a decade.

Clearly, any hasty US withdrawal now will only create a vacuum that will severely undermine the hard-fought gains. The fear of the US administration is therefore understandable. According to US President George W. Bush, who insists that the war launched five years ago was right, any chaos leftover from Iraq would mean “… the terrorist movement could emerge emboldened with new recruits ... new resources ... and an even greater determination to dominate the region and harm America".

The importance of lasting the course was echoed by US Vice President Dick Cheney, who claimed that premature withdrawal would mean that Iraq would remain a place of "stagnation, resentment and violence ready for export".

The proxy war that has been fought by the Iranian government to undermine US efforts and constant meddling by Iraqi neighbours has only served to increase tension. The majority Shiite population has a natural warming with the Shiite theocracy in Iran. However, conversely, the US remains bitter enemies of the Iranian state and Sunni nationalists strongly despise any Iranian influence on Iraq.

The correlations that surround the artificial state of Iraq are simply vast. While the US may have inherited the problem, in reality the problem was sown with the creation of Iraq as a country long ago.

Factions within a faction

The belief that the key to political reconciliation is bringing Sunni, Kurds and Shiites together is misleading. Such is Iraq that there are many divisions within each faction itself.

There is increasingly violence between Sunnis that remain loyal to al-Qaida and those who are pro-American. Divisions within the Shiite majority are much graver however. Fighting between Shiite government forces and Shiite militias have already cost hundreds of lives in recent weeks and threaten upheaval in the Shiite south.

Bridging the gap between moderates and extremists in each bloc is proving a tough measure.

Conclusion

Ominously, Iraq now boasts three major groups each armed to the teeth by their respective militias.

Political progress has been far-too slow and has been affectively undermined by long-term uncertainties. Indeed, there may still be a bloody civil war, with or without US presence in the country.

Ultimately the surge has failed. It was always going to be a temporary measure to allow breathing space for greater national reconciliation. With no agreement on oil, disputes about federalism and provincial powers, and the issue of Kirkuk intensifying by the day, the Iraqi government has yet again failed to meet most of its critical benchmarks.

Five years on, the US is far from a successful exit strategy. It looks more and more likely that President Bush will hand over the headache and the time-bombs to the next US president.

The strategy of the next US president has naturally come under intense spotlight. Whether they continue their dream of a democratic and prosperous Iraq and battle on, or they withdraw all together, Iraq will continue to dominate the international fold for decades to come.