Iraq: contentious, controversial and explosive

The wait for true democracy

The elections in Iraq were as predictable as they were historic. Voting patterns only highlighted the fragmented nature of the society. Most political parties representing each group united to maximise gains at the elections.

The elections only served as a political census and by no means revealed great insight into the policies and vision of an elected Iraqi government.

Iraqi negotiations were often bogged-down by protracted negotiations, missed deadlines and bitter squabbling. Frequently at a stalemate, it was only with feverish US pressure that the political process did not grind to a halt altogether.

However, all too often for the sake of progress, the real issues were swept under the political rug and remained unresolved.

Years later, the highly contentious issues of sharing of natural resources, the extent of federalism and the role of religion are still gathering dust in the Iraqi political chambers.

A year after the initial Iraqi hydro-carbon law was passed, Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis remain as divided as ever. With the second highest oil reserves in the world, oil revenues are key for the revitalisation of an Iraqi economy shattered by UN sanctions against Saddam and then by a lack of stability and investment.

Growing discord between the Kurdistan Regional Government and Baghdad

It is difficult to assess the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the same breath as the rest of Iraq. While violence and sectarian bloodshed has engulfed much of Iraq, the Kurds, flourishing under de facto independence have been quietly building a model state with growing prominence, economic prosperity and strategic importance.

Impatiently waiting for what they perceive as a failing state, the Kurds have since sought a unilateral path while successfully marketing the Kurdistan region as “the other Iraq”.

However, the rapid gains and transformation of their region into a credible economic hub has come at a price. After the Kurds approved their own oil laws, international oil companies flocked to the region. A number of exploration contracts were awarded but were followed by a strong rebuke from Baghdad insisting that any deal signed without the consent of the central government was “illegal”.

Increasing allegations of over-reaching by Kurds, have added to a growing rift between regional powers, the legal implications of the current constitution and the allocation of the Iraqi national budget.

Clearly, the Shiites in particular can ill-afford to alienate their Kurdish partners, and with the much-maligned and shaky Iraqi government spear-headed by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki under intense spotlight, the Kurds will feel confident to continue developing their region unchallenged.

The recent tensions between Arbil and Baghdad only served as a reminder that key issues between both sides have only been papered over by the greater difficulties in the rest of Iraq.