Negotiating the future

A few states advanced or refreshed significant political and educational initiatives. As the future is frequently anticipated only in the form of absolute danger, some countries called upon the UN Security Council to react to climate change threats. Indeed, under the UN Charter, the Security Council shall determine the existence of any threat to peace and shall take decisions to maintain or restore international peace and security. The countries concerned appealed to the Council to do that in the context of climate change, as it is obliged to prevent an aggravation of the situation and to devise appropriate measures for all states to carry out.

Mindful of the scientific research that excessive greenhouse gas emissions are the cause of threats to global security, they suggested that the Council consider imposing mandatory emissions caps for all states and use its power to sanction in order to encourage compliance. It should be recalled that the Security Council convened a first meeting on this topic in April 2007 but no action was taken. However, there is no doubt that climate change poses new security and geopolitical challenges that require collective responses in the future.

In an academic context, Malta organised the first international conference to address climate change diplomacy in 2008. The conference considered topical issues relating to challenges of inter-professional communication in climate change diplomacy (for example, between scientists and diplomats), priorities for capacity building in the Bali process (immediate and long-term needs of small states).

An important conclusion of the conference was the recognition of the need for a multi-stakeholder, multi-disciplinary, holistic and systematic approach to climate change, taking into account all possible opportunities for strengthening synergies with environmental and other global processes.

Further energetic efforts are necessary to better strengthen and co-ordinate UN activities on climate change. A universal strategy on the matter is still on the waiting list. Exchanges of views and information-sharing are only a preliminary component of the expected process. A permanent co-ordination of operational measures is necessary, as the existing fragmentation of activities undertaken by different UN agencies is detrimental to the very concept of a global strategy in this area.

How these vital requirements will be treated remains to be seen. An official meeting will be held in Bangkok from March 31 to April 4, 2008 to turn the Bali Action Plan into a working agenda for the next two years. One of the priorities will be to focus on the engagement of major stakeholders to see what they could contribute towards tackling climate change, and to find out what they wish to stipulate in an international legal instrument. The meeting will also set the specific terms of reference of the next round of negotiations.

The future cannot be neutral. It is the object of conflicting actions inspired by policies which are far from being convergent. A Chinese proverb says: "If you want to know your past - look into your present conditions. If you want to know your future - look into your present actions." Governments should critically assess their present actions and behaviour. However, they cannot easily harmonise their roles, institutions and positions even when they are under the peril of a global crisis. It is the duty of multilateral diplomacy to help governments go beyond general discussions and negotiate win-win consensus solutions.

Diplomats from 192 countries are expected to help promote network building, practice inclusiveness, encourage interactivity and shape in good faith a process leading to a generally acceptable outcome. This must respond to the aspirations of humankind as a whole. To achieve this universal objective it is imperative to recognise and use the transformative power of a dynamic ecological diplomacy.