China welcomes us to our future Armageddon

Lies, damned lies and statistics

Half-truths are so common in China that there is no negative stigma attached to lying, especially if it is to “save face” for your family, self or country. For example, six months ago China forbade ethanol production using human consumption grain crops because droughts and floods were set to decrease the season’s harvest. Two months ago, with food prices becoming too high, the government sold stored grain at auction onto the market to bring down prices.

Amazingly, just a few days ago I read that this year’s crop harvest was a bumper harvest and grain production had increased year upon year from 2004. This is considered “saving face” by telling a half-truth. The Chinese government wouldn’t want anyone to think negatively about them since they weren’t able to grow a record harvest, so by the loosest possible definitions of “harvest”, using released stored grain figures added to this year’s harvest, the numbers came up as a bumper year.

Rural electrification is mainly where the use of renewables will be concentrated. Base metals and commodities prices make it un-economical to run electric lines into the countryside throughout the nation. For China this is a win-win situation, first by “gaining face” internationally and, second, by saving money and commodities in the process. The downside is once installed, these devices are non-job creating: they are self functioning.

You can see the “mianzi” card being played with China joining the AP6, the Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate. Commencing in January 2006, the AP6 brings together China, the United States, Australia, India, Japan, and the Republic of Korea in an agreement based on clean energy technology co-operation regarding coal and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Personally I feel China is unlikely to invest in CCS systems for coal plants or heavy industry in the next decade or two due to the cost and using CCS at the new Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) projects would slow down production, but the partnership strengthens their reputation globally.

Seeking a balance

Within China there has been a public call for a balance between economic growth and environmental protection. One political manoeuvre is to move polluting industries and antiquated factories out of urban areas. This is coded language for moving the polluters to the countryside, where sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, plus other contaminants can diffuse more quickly: but a side effect is that it coats the food producing areas, on which most cities rely for food production, with particulate.

Meanwhile, when industry pollution is moved out of town to clean the air it is replaced with vehicle exhaust fumes from the 16,000 new cars which hit the roads every day.

Conservation has not been mentioned once in the Five-Year Plans of the central government. Conservation = non-consumption. The number one agenda is job creation to keep social stability, so conservation is not considered an option; it is not talked about and it will never be discussed. Some of my students who argue in favour of conservation, when asked about the possibility of turning off all of the neon lights around the city firmly said it just wouldn’t be China without the lights. They are part of Chinese culture.

It has been suggested that the Chinese are waiting for world political pressure and trade sanctions before addressing this problem in a meaningful way. It would then appear that by responding to this pressure they were conceding to world demands. My response to this is a resounding “Not likely!” This is because it would involve “losing face” by backing down and doing something at the behest of Western governments.

Instead, China makes pre-emptive decisions that appear to be doing something to help solve the problem with renewable energy, when in reality they are doing the opposite: increasing their reliance on coal for primary electricity generation. Coal is also used for source heat in smelting and the heavy-manufacturing industries. It is a primary resource for home heat in the country side. Many Chinese also use it for cooking.

Life-giving force

Coal is by no means the sole cause of China’s pollution. Many other industrial pollutants add to the mix. According to a New York Times article, “Only 1 per cent of China's 560 million city dwellers breathe air considered safe by the European Union, according to a World Bank study of Chinese pollution published in 2007”. I am obviously living in the bad air 99 per cent. The energy and life-giving force from the sun is literally blocked out by polluted skies for weeks on end.

Electricity consumption continues to skyrocket even though nearly every resident in China knows there is a problem. Again “mianzi” is at play. Displays of wealth and glitz are considered “face gainers”, showing off the new $500 mobile phone or driving the latest 7 Series black Mercedes are at the top of the list for individuals. Rapid expansion of the economy means taller buildings being built in the cities, which need more elaborate light displays after dark consuming even more electricity. New freeways crisscrossing the country are lined with triple-sided billboards displaying endless consumer goods every 500 meters that light the night sky.

“Mianzi” is its own feedback loop. Development needs to be ever bigger and more ostentatious to show progress. This in turn drives the need to build more power plants to satisfy demand for a wealthier population. Take note: the wealth generation is in its infancy and credit cards are still considered a new thing.