Capitulation

The ALP has increased the number of seats they believe are now winnable for them, and are actively pursuing seats with over a 10 per cent margin. They believe they already have most of the marginals in the bag and are growing in confidence about non-marginal seats across the country.

As a result, the ALP have expanded their seat front to reflect this growing confidence. They are reallocating their resources into new seats that were, only six months ago, not on the radar in their wildest dreams. But most importantly, they are cashed up like no other party has ever been cashed up to fight an election. Money is flowing into the coffers of the ALP from both the union movement and private fundraising - and they have barely started to spend it.

The use of taxpayer-funded advertising by the government, as we’ve seen, has failed to deliver votes - but that advertising is probably the greatest electoral benefit of incumbency, especially with the current government. The weight for political advertising now has to be taken by the Coalitions own funds in the campaign, rather than taxpayer funds in the lead up to it as the latter has failed to move votes. But the Coalition is finding it difficult to raise campaign funds. Donors are drying up in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia, and the donors that are left are providing less funds than usual, or are providing equal amounts to both the Coalition and the ALP. The stench of electoral death is in the air and the Coalition campaign kitty is reflecting it.

But on the strategic and tactical front, the Coalition are doing the opposite to the ALP - they aren’t expanding seats to attack, they are expanding the number of seats to defend.

Ministerial briefs to support marginal seat campaigning have apparently stopped being made for ALP held seats, the Coalition has expanded the number of seats they now call marginal to 40 (and that’s frankly an understatement) including seats that are held by 10 per cent margins. But most importantly, the Coalition doesn’t have much of a campaign kitty compared to the ALP.

The Coalition is running a firewall strategy, but a firewall strategy that is ten points deep and without having a financial capability to defend a wall of seats that thick.

Firewall strategies fail nearly everywhere they are used by a government to defend incumbency - but they have succeeded when the aim is not to win the election, but to simply to save the party an enormous defeat.

Clearly there is a firewall strategy in place, but equally clearly, it is just too many points and seats deep for the finances available to run it effectively.

Howard has conceded the election, but he hasn’t told his backbenchers, he hasn’t told his marginal seat holders and the only question left to answer is which seats the Liberal leadership has actually decided to sacrifice and which ones will be properly funded in the firewall.

All this twaddle about the election being a circuit breaker is simply for Coalition internal consumption. The Liberal leadership knows they’ve lost, they’ve conceded the election (which is why they are running a firewall strategy) but they’re in the unenviable position of not being able to tell their own marginal seat holders simply to prevent a riot breaking out and turning a defeat into a political execution.