Capitulation

Under Beazley, the policy issues owned by the Coalition that had a fair level of significant influence on the vote were defence and security, keeping prices down and national infrastructure.

But it was the non-policy issues that gave the Coalition its vote with preferred PM, win expectations, deserve to win, doing what’s right, important issues and right direction being their big significant vote drivers. The inertial effect was playing out.

The ALP in contrast had only industrial relations, being in touch and education as significant vote drivers that they owned. Of the 15 high confidence issues, the Coalition had 11 of them as their own, while the ALP had only 4.

The Rudd came along, and this is what happened with these issues:

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This is quite profound. Look at all of those issues moving from being Liberal strengths to ALP strengths - absolutely amazing.

The end result of this movement became this:

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Of the 17 issues of significant influence on the vote, Rudd owned 11 of them.

But it was the way that these issues changed in their significance which was also important. Preferred PM became a larger vote driver for Rudd than it was for Howard - reflecting a momentum effect which is continuing to this day. Rudd was also cashing in on important issues, future plan, deserve to win, win expectations and doing what’s right, again reflecting a positive reaction to not only his leadership, but his approach and political outlook.