Libs were their own best opponent

Howard seemed to have promoted himself to campaign director with policy announcements mirroring his personal concerns rather than what the research must have been advising.

The policy launch centred on education and housing affordability. Janette Howard is a school teacher, his new grandchild was there, and he had just chipped in to help his son buy a house. It suited his stage in the life cycle, but didn't change votes.

The Liberals were also stale with a campaign on fast rewind. We'd seen it all before. The black, red and white ads with the menacing voice-overs and the boom, boom, boom; and the L-plated Opposition leaders. So too had Labor, and it knew what to do this time.

The Coalition also appeared over-confident. Could they really win with just 48 per cent of the vote? This anti-democratic wishful thinking reinforced Labor voting intentions. And they were complacent, making no attempt to attack Kevin Rudd's character or performance until too late in the campaign.

Structural issues have also dogged the Liberals. Labor effectively ran a 12-month election campaign, courtesy of the union Your Rights at Work advertising. The Liberals can no longer beat, or even match, the financial fire-power of the Labor Party, and without a tied constituency like the unions their membership base is also narrower.

They might also have succeeded with a new leader, but the talent pool provided by the state preselection system hadn't produced one that their colleagues would support.

Now they will have to choose a new leader from that pool, and one of his first acts should be to appoint a committee to inquire into the loss. As a result of Rudd's victory and their mistakes they will have to build a whole new coalition of support, not just mend a few fences.