Oil and the Iraqi curse

Of the benchmarks, the US sees an agreement on oil as a precursor to reconciliation and future harmony in Iraq.

One of the priorities of the US is to ensure that the Sunnis are enticed into the political process and appeased to endorse future agreements, as a prelude to ending the raging insurgency. Disenfranchised Sunni sentiment could be felt with the Accordance Front warning that any draft considered without the Sunnis buying-in is fruitless and would attract more disunity.

The Association of Muslim Scholars, a powerful Sunni voice, even issued a fatwa to denounce the law.

In fact, with the government holding the majority needed of the 275 seats in Parliament any draft can be easily sanctioned. However, this defeats the sole objective of the US and al-Maliki administration to conduce national reconciliation.

However, there appears to be disagreement between Shiites themselves, with Nassar al-Rubaie, head of the Sadrist bloc in Parliament, criticising the draft law for leaving nothing of Iraq’s unity.

Oil exports are the single most important source of revenue in Iraq and a guarantor of future economic recovery. Yet frequent insurgent attacks on oil facilities have crippled oil infrastructure with severe fuel shortages in a land awash with oil. The passing of the oil law is crucial for much-needed foreign investment and to provide a better and prosperous future for Iraq and crucially provide a real alternative to insurgency and mass unemployment gripping Iraq.

Since the US-led invasion began, the economy has tumbled in a downward spiral with oil production about 1.5 million barrels less than under the Saddam regime.

Even the issue of the historical city of Kirkuk centres on oil, and this is the reason for the evident suspicion of the Turkish regime for Kurdish designs on the city. Clearly, whoever holds sway over oil also simultaneously holds sway over influence and power.

Deep differences remain between Sunni, Shiite, and Kurdish factions, and oil is currently the tip of the iceberg. How harmony will ever be maintained in Iraq is open to much debate, even if the US does ultimately execute a successful exit strategy.