The great race for the White House

Of course, it is one thing to consider voting for an independent candidate, it is another to actually do it. Many voters, particularly soft partisans, like the idea of an independent candidate, but don’t like the idea of wasting their vote, and the major parties would work hard to paint a Bloomberg vote as exactly that. Turning notional support into actual votes is very difficult for independent candidates.

However, polls assessing a three way race including Bloomberg have already shown support at between 11 and 17 per cent, and he isn’t even campaigning.

A Bloomberg victory is a long shot, but these early numbers suggest he could shake up the race. Bloomberg would draw more evenly from Democrats and Republicans than Perot, so it’s not clear he would deliver either party victory. However, if he can find the right message he could carry a number of states, something Perot couldn’t do. Many analysts believe Bloomberg could win New York, for example.

In so doing, Bloomberg could deny either major party candidate an Electoral College majority. A deadlock would mean the House of Representatives would choose the President, for the first time since 1824.

The matter is not resolved by a simple House of Representatives majority. Each state gets one vote, with a majority of states required to select the President. A candidate needs 26 state delegations to prevail. Democrats currently control 26, so the loss of a single delegation would cost them the majority needed to select a president. Many delegations are closely divided - in at least a dozen Democrat controlled delegations the loss of a single representative in the congressional elections would cost them control.

How then would the presidency be resolved? Nobody really knows. There would be intense negotiations prior to January 20, when the issue must be resolved. One thing is certain: Bloomberg would have significant leverage. If he finished second in the national vote, there is an outside chance he could use this leverage to wind up President. Though finishing second will be a big ask.

Predicting the impact of a Bloomberg candidacy is difficult. An independent candidacy’s viability is influenced by the identity of the major party nominees, and nobody yet knows who they will be. No one can confidently evaluate the impact of a $1 billion campaign. But if Bloomberg strikes a chord, the resolution of the presidency in 2008 could make the 2000 debacle look orderly.