Aboriginal policy - not an issue Howard can win on

But Aboriginal welfare is, fundamentally, a social justice issue and the conservatives are never going to top Labor on that territory. Voters may even agree with Howard’s actions but that is not the point - it is not “his” issue. In fact, if Howard is successful in whipping up enough voter interest in Aboriginal welfare he may actually push voters away as they turn to the better credentialed party to deliver: Labor.

Rule 2: Once you get your issue up there, dominate it.

OK, let’s assume - we’ll give him that much - that Howard is currently on top with this issue. After all, Labor has scarcely said a word in opposition and has been effectively blitzed out of the media by the sheer scale and audacity of the program: all the headlines have been Howard’s. But can he sustain it?

My belief is that, because he essentially does not have issue ownership of Aboriginal welfare, he will struggle to stay on top in the voters’ minds. No public policy implementation of this scale can go through without hiccups along the way - that is just the reality of complex service delivery. And it is when things go wrong that it is important that the issue is your issue.

Rule 3: Whatever the issue, frame it in your terms.

To this end, Howard has been quite successful. Mobilising the army and police and framing the agenda as a “national emergency” places it, at least for a few weeks, in conservative territory. The problem will be keeping it that way (see rule 2). As long as Howard can sustain a law and order focus, he can stay on top; however, social justice is firmly Labor terrain. In other words, natural forces mean this issue will irrevocably drift towards a welfare debate - the conservatives just won’t be able to hold it in their tent.

If Howard really wanted to maximise political gain from Aboriginal affairs, this would have been a policy better announced six to eight weeks from an election. But maybe that is the plan? An early trip to the ballot box? The afore mentioned Peter Brent thinks an August election a possibility, but I doubt it. Howard is too far back in the polls.

My conclusion is that this “emergency” will not be another Tampa for John Howard: it is just not an issue he can win on. At best, he is being “courageous”; at worst, he is doing Kevin Rudd’s work for him.