Severe climate change unlikely before we run out of fossil fuel

China will soon reach its maximum coal production capacity and we will then be in a situation where Russia alone sits on the last great coal reserves. The moment in history when we reach “Peak Coal” will be determined by Russia’s future coal production.

So compared with what has been previously asserted, we are going to be much better off in terms of carbon dioxide emissions.

The total sum of all fossil fuel resources that industry considers accessible is reported every year in the BP Statistical Review. If we use this optimistic value then the total energy available from all reserves of oil, natural gas and coal equals 36 ZJ (Zeta Joules, 1x1021 joules), a gigantic quantity. This is more than our research group considers possible but is less than that needed for all the scenarios that families A1, A2, B1 and B2 require. The fossil fuel energy is insufficient.

Family A2, is our worst case in terms of temperature increase so let us study its energy hunger. In the years to 2100 the IPCC estimates that A2 requires between 70 and 90 ZJ, in other words double the amount that industry believes is accessible. Then there is another small detail that is almost never discussed, namely that all the families also require fossil fuel energy after 2100. (In Figure 3 all the scenarios require additional oil and gas during the 22nd century. IPCC has not discussed this.)

Figure 5: Cumulative fossil fuel usage for family A2, 70 to 90 Zeta Joules, compared with the total fossil reserves according to BP Statistical Revue, 36 Zeta Joules.

We have no need to discuss or dispute the temperature increase up to the present day, but we must discuss and dispute the temperature increases that the IPCC-families indicate and the fossil fuel resources that the IPCC uses in its prognoses.

We need new estimates of future temperature increases based on realistic expectations of oil, natural gas and coal use. Only then can we make sensible decisions for our future.

The world’s greatest future problem is that too many people must share too little energy. In the current political debate we presumably need to replace the word “environment” with “energy”, but the policy required to tackle the energy problem will greatly benefit the environment.