Has the ALP gone feral in its hunt for green votes?

If this occurs, and assuming the global population reaches around nine billion in 2050 as projected, annual emissions will have to be reduced to approximately 3.72 tonnes per person. This figure can be used as a guide to where Australia’s emissions should be in 2050.

At 2050, Australia’s population is expected to be 28.1 million. Multiplying this figure by 3.72 tonnes of CO2-e per person equals approximately 104.5 million tonnes of CO2-e. Australia’s annual emissions are now approximately 570 million tonnes of CO2-e. Hence, Australia’s annual emissions will need to be reduced by around 80 per cent by 2050.

Against this benchmark, the ALP’s 60 per cent target seems to be an underestimate of what will be required as it would only result in Australia’s emissions falling to around 220 million tonnes of CO2-e in 2050. At this level, Australia’s per capita emissions are likely to be approximately two and a half times higher than the required global average.

A higher than average rate of per capita emissions could be accommodated by buying emission credits from other countries. However, purchasing credits from abroad could be very costly; potentially far more costly than reducing per capita emissions to a level nearer the global average.

When the science is used as the guide, the ALP’s target can be seen for what it is - a political compromise that, while less than ideal, is the start of the reform process. Certainly it is far from being fanatical or economically irresponsible as suggested by Turnbull and Chaney.

At this point, Australia’s political and business leaders shouldn’t be debating about whether we can “afford” to cut emissions by 60 per cent. They should be discussing how best to achieve the target.