Labor at last?

Thanks to media irresponsibility, global problems like energy depletion, fresh water depletion and global warming were not pursued with any diligence, and so Howard, who has zero understanding of the environment, got away with doing nothing.

But history has moved on.

The Bush presidency is a dead duck; the wars in Afghanistan and especially Iraq are failures. Tony Blair will soon leave office, his reputation in ruins thanks to his support for Bush.

There is now a Democrat Congress in the US and in all likelihood there will be a Democrat president. This new political structure will have to move firmly on Iraq, terrorism, the world economy, international relations, and energy and environmental security in ways that will increasingly isolate Howard.

Global warming is now one of the two great global issues, while energy security rises steadily up the list. Suddenly the real world is squeezing out the notional world of money markets in people’s consciousness.

In Australia the “sudden” water crisis shocked Australians into a realisation that things were dire, something the drought-stricken bushies had known for some time. Meanwhile, more big storms were showing us what the future will be like, and it is not a happy vision.

There are even cracks in the economy. The Chinese-driven boom cannot last much longer, and when it goes bust the fallout will be serious. A whole generation have leveraged their lives on the assumption of reliable income, and the resulting debt as jobs go and homes lose value could be very ugly indeed. Meanwhile, the housing boom has seriously damaged the socio-economic equilibrium as a whole generation stares at the prospect of renting forever.

And finally, the emergent environment-energy crisis is placing the emphasis back on government as opposed to markets. It is interesting to see the fervid attempts to make global warming into a markets-based issue through carbon trading, but both the imminent emergency and the longer term program of amelioration will demand sustained action by the only institutional authority able to do it, national government.

Historically, the Liberals have done well in times of relative stability when the focus was on the economy, but in times of threat, Labor, with its wider political purview, comes into its own.

So the big things, once in Howard’s favour, have shifted against him.

Rudd, able in global matters and not afraid of policy-making, with the green-credentialled Garrett riding at his side, looks well set to take over and set Australia on a new path. Australia desperately needs more balanced government, able to restructure the economy as the material changes kick in, able to ensure social fairness, able to rebuild social and physical infrastructure, all in an increasingly emergency context.

This has been Labor’s historical role - taking over when things were going pear-shaped because of global changes. It happened during World War II and in the early 1980s when globalisation was first under way. With a growing Greens presence to keep them honest, Labor can get back to what it does best - nation-building through strong, representative and inclusive government.